Saturday, December 14, 2024

Who Will Get the Better of the Devin Williams-Nestor Cortes Trade Between the Brewers & Yankees?

Yesterday, the Milwaukee Brewers sent their closer Devin Williams to the New York Yankees in exchange for starting pitcher Nestor Cortes, Jr. along with minor league prospect Caleb Durbin.

So, who will get the better of this trade?

In Williams, the Yankees get a brand new closer after Clay Holmes signed a free agent deal with the crosstown Mets. Williams, a second-round draft pick by the Brew Crew in 2013, reached the major leagues late in the 2019 and would become NL Rookie of the Year during the 2020 COVID shortened season emerging as then Brewers closer Josh Hader's set up man. Williams struck out 53 batters in 27 innings pitched posting a 0.33 ERA finishing 7th in NL Cy Young balloting. 

Williams, 30, took over the closer role when the Brewers traded Hader to the San Diego Padres during the trade deadline in 2022. He would earn back-to-back NL All-Star appearances in 2022 and 2023 but would miss the first four months of the 2024 season with stress fractures in his back. Williams would return to the mound in late July and ended up posting 14 saves in 22 appearances down the stretch. Unfortunately for Williams, his last appearance in a Brewers uniform was a sour one giving up the go-ahead 3-run HR to Mets slugger Pete Alonso in Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series.

Well, Cortes can certainly relate. There's a very good chance that when people think of Cortes they will invariably think of the walk-off extra innings grand slam HR he surrendered to Freddie Freeman in Game 1 of the 2024 World Series. It was Cortes first appearance on the mound in over five weeks due to a flexor strain and would overshadow a serviceable season. In 31 appearances (30 of them starts), Cortes went 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA striking out 162 batters in 174.1 innings pitched while walking only 39. 

But the Yankees decided to part ways with Cortes. He found out he was traded after waking up to a flurry of text messages while vacationing in Las Vegas to celebrate his 30th birthday. It would mark the end of his third stint with the Bronx Bombers.

The Cuban born southpaw was selected by the Yankees in the 36th round of the 2013 MLB Draft. After toiling in the minor leagues for nearly five seasons, the Baltimore Orioles was selected him the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. This would require the O's to keep Cortes on their major league roster the entire 2018 season or return him to the Yankees. While Cortes made his MLB debut with the O's in 2018, he was returned to the Yankees after only four appearances.

Cortes would make his Yankees debut in 2019 pitching mainly out of the bullpen only to be traded to the Seattle Mariners following the season. After making only 5 appearances for the M's during the 2020 COVID shortened season, Cortes was granted free agency and joined the Yankees for a third time. After initially pitching out of the bullpen in 2021, Cortes joined the starting rotation in July. He finished the year 2-3 with a 2.90 ERA striking out 103 batters while walking only 25 over 93 innings pitched.

2022 proved to be Cortes' breakout season going 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA posting 163 strikeouts against only 38 walks over 158.1 innings pitched earning his first AL All-Star selection. Unfortunately, a rotator cuff injury limited Cortes to only 12 starts in 2023. As previously mentioned, while Cortes pitched a fuller season this year, he did get hurt in September. 

From where I sit this could be an even trade. Williams and Cortes are free agents after 2025. So, it could be one and done for pitchers. On the other hand, it remains to be seen if Williams can handle the New York spotlight. As for Cortes, I think he will be comfortable pitching in Milwaukee and will add depth to that rotation. Another factor which could give the Brewers the edge in this deal is the fate of Caleb Durbin. Originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2019, Durbin spent most of 2024 in AAA ball. With Willy Adames having departed for the Giants, perhaps Durbin will get his big break.


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