Could Freeland's Sudden Resignation Mean Trudeau's Days as Canadian PM Are Numbered?

Chrystia Freeland, Canada's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, abruptly announced her resignation from Justin Trudeau's cabinet.

Freeland has been Trudeau's most trusted lieutenant having served as Deputy Prime Minister since 2019 and Finance Minister since 2020. She previously served as Canada's Minister of International Trade from 2015 to 2017 and Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2019. 

Her resignation came the morning she was deliver an economic statement to Canada's House of Commons. But as her resignation letter revealed, Trudeau informed her she was being relieved of her duty as Minister of Finance and to be reassigned to another (presumably lesser) portfolio. Freeland wrote in part:

Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the cabinet.

To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it.

For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada.

Our country today faces a grave challenge. The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including a threat of 25 per cent tariffs.

We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.

That means pushing back against 'America First' economic nationalism with a determined effort to fight for capital and investment and the jobs they bring. That means working in good faith and humility with the premiers of the provinces and territories of our great and diverse country, and building a true Team Canada response.

I know Canadians would recognize and respect such an approach. They know when we are working for them, and they equally know when we are focused on ourselves. Inevitably, our time in government will come to an end. But how we deal with the threat our country currently faces will define us for a generation, and perhaps longer. Canada will win if we are strong, smart, and united.

While Freeland did not elaborate what she meant by "eschewing costly political gimmicks", she presumably was referring to Trudeau's proposed 2-month GST holiday and $250 tax rebates for Canadians earning less than $150,000.  

Freeland's announcement caught everyone in Ottawa off guard and now faced with the gravity of the situation, Trudeau is weighing all options including resignation. After all, the Liberals have a minority parliament and the opposition NDP and Bloc Quebecois along with angry Liberal MPs could join the Tories in bringing down the government. Resignation might be Trudeau's only option to save face.

In the meantime, Trudeau has named Minister of Public Safety Dominic LeBlanc to be his new Finance Minister. However, Trudeau had reportedly wanted to replace Freeland with former Bank of Canada Governor and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. However, Freeland's resignation made that appointment untenable. 

It also remains to be seen how tenable Trudeau's future at 24 Sussex Drive is. There have been increasing calls for his resignation within the Liberal Party and Freeland's departure will only accelerate these demands. 

Should Trudeau resign then Freeland would be a natural successor. In which case Freeland could be Kamala Harris to Trudeau's Joe Biden, and this has not been lost on some observers. Though I doubt the Liberals would want the same outcome. 

However, in this scenario, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre becomes Donald Trump and, unlike here, Trump is not popular in Canada. If Freeland can convince Canadians that Poilievre would be Trump's puppet then perhaps the Liberals would have a chance. But the odds are very long. Not only do the Tories have a 2:1 lead over the Liberals (44%-21%), the Liberals are in a tie with the NDP which could give the NDP an opportunity to supplant the Liberals as Canada's main center-left political party. Should Trudeau resign and Freeland (or anyone else) succeed him, the Canadian election is still Poilievre's to lose. 

Who says Canadian politics are boring?