While Syria has been in a civil war since 2011, a ceasefire brokered in 2020 by Russia and Turkey had largely kept hold until late last month when the rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Aleppo. In rapid succession, HTS subsequently captured Hama, Homs and now Damascus.
HTS bided its time and seized the opportunity as Syrian forces were left vulnerable with Russia being occupied with Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah turning their attention towards Israel.
The U.S. and much of the international community view HTS as a terrorist organization as the group led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was founded as an affiliate of al Qaeda in 2011 when it was known as Jabhat al-Nusra. However, by 2017, Jolani broke away from al Qaeda although it is believed the two organizations retain covert ties. Jolani has tried to present himself as a moderate who will be tolerant towards the Alawites (a sect of Shiite Muslims to whom the Assad family belongs) and Christians. But who can say what Jolani will do once he is in power?
It must not be forgotten that Assad is a butcher who gassed his own populace much like Saddam Hussein did in Iraq with the Kurds. Yet one must wonder if a post-Assad Syria will be any better than a post-Saddam Iraq. With that said, Saddam was ousted by U.S. and multinational forces whereas Assad was defeated from within. So, this might be viewed with greater legitimacy within the Arab/Muslim world in the long term.
Complicating matters is that we are in the final weeks of the Biden Administration and heading full steam ahead into Trump 2.0. The President-elect is signaling the U.S. will stay out of things. This gives the Russians a lifeline to commit mischief especially if Trump tips the scale for Russia in Ukraine.
Then there are everyday Syrians who might be celebrating today. But to quote The Who this could easily become yet another case of, "Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."
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