After speculation that deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad had been killed in a plane crash after fleeing the country, it has now been confirmed that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has granted him and his family exile in Moscow on "humanitarian grounds."
The only time dictators engage in humanitarian behavior is when they do favors for fellow dictators.
I cannot help but think that by accepting Assad that Putin is planning a long game to return him to power. While Assad has run Syria for nearly a quarter century, he is still a relatively young man, not even 60. So, his time might not be done.
But make no mistake. Russia has been calling the shots in Syria for years and now its sphere of influence has shrunk overnight. Unless Russia has plans to embrace HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, it is in their interest to try to return Assad to power.
Yes, Russia is presently occupied in war with Ukraine. But President-elect Trump is likely to give Russia a way out of the war even if only to save face. Once that comes to pass then Russia can focus their attention on returning Assad to power in Syria.
Mind you, Russia would have to bide its time. If Abu Mohammad al-Jolani proves to be even worse than Assad (i.e. al Qaeda and ISIS on steroids) then perhaps such machinations might more readily come to pass. But if al-Jolani lives up to his rhetoric of a tolerant Syria open to religious minorities and to the West (including Israel) such plans will be more difficult to carry out.
Nevertheless, so long as Assad remains welcome in Russia, I would not count him out.
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