The Democratic National Committee today formally approved a plan to make the South Carolina Primary the first in the nation next year supplanting both the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.
Under the new regime, South Carolina would hold its primary on February 3, 2024, with both New Hampshire and Nevada holding their primaries three days later. Primaries in Georgia and Michigan would also be moved up.
President Biden first proposed these changes back in December. Yes, South Carolina has a significant African-American vote which Iowa and New Hampshire do not have. But make no mistake. Biden is making South Carolina the first primary state because it propelled him to the Democratic nomination in 2020 (in no small part due to longtime SC Congressman Jim Clyburn). It is also worth noting that DNC Chair Jaime Harrison is also from the Palmetto State having unsuccessfully challenged Lindsey Graham for his Senate seat in 2020.
Needless to say, Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire aren't too happy. I'm not so concerned about the blowback in Iowa. First, their 2020 caucus was a total debacle. Second, Iowa has been trending towards Republicans with Donald Trump winning the state handily in both 2016 and 2020.
However, New Hampshire is a different matter. While Biden carried NH in 2020 by nearly 7.5%, Trump lost it to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by only 0.4%. They are a fiercely independent people with a great deal of pride. New Hampshire has held the first primary in every presidential election since 1920. There is also the tradition of midnight voting in Dixville Notch, population 4. While some might consider this ritual silly and outmoded, New Hampshire's status as the first in the nation primary is a central part of the Granite State's very identity. To be stripped of it could cost President Biden the Granite State in 2024 and with it the White House.
Now it's true that New Hampshire has only four electoral college votes. But for all of Biden's affection for South Carolina, Trump carried it by nearly 12 points in 2020. I don't see Biden getting those 9 electoral college votes in 2024 especially if either Nikki Haley or Tim Scott are on the GOP ticket. Either way Democrats have no chance of winning those electoral college votes in South Carolina.
But Biden could lose those four electoral college votes in NH and with it the election if they also lost states like Georgia (16), Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). That would tie the electoral college at 269-269 and throw the election to the House of Representatives. This would mean a Republican President be it Trump or someone else.
New Hampshire state law requires it to hold the first primary in the nation. But should they hold this primary before South Carolina then the DNC could sanction them by not recognizing their delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This is a self-inflicted wound Democrats can ill-afford especially with election denialism running high among Republicans. One can only hope a compromise of some sort can be worked out to save face for all parties concerned.
While I understand Biden's gratitude towards South Carolina picking a fight with New Hampshire could end up putting Trump back into the White House. Long story short. President Biden shouldn't take NH for granted. Or in this case for granite.
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