Of Course Trump is Going To Run in 2024

I don't why some people think it's a question of "if" former President Trump will make another White House bid in 2024.

What has Trump done for nearly the past year? He has absurdly claimed he won the election "by a lot" from the moment Biden was declared the winner. Two months less a day later, the former President inspired his followers to storm the Capitol in an effort to prevent the peaceful and lawful transfer of power. 

This is man who has spent nearly a year claiming he is still the President of the United States and has managed to convince nearly 80% of Republicans into believing him. This includes elected Republican officials who will not acknowledge Joe Biden as President of the United States or won't deny the election wasn't stolen as is the case with the number two ranking Republican in Congress. 

Of course, Donald Trump is going to run in 2024. 

It isn't to say there aren't other Republicans with presidential ambitions (i.e. Tom Cotton, Ron DeSantis, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem) But none of that matters. The Republican nomination is Trump's for the asking. Consider what I wrote back on the Fourth of July:

There is every reason to believe that Trump will run in 2024. He doesn't need to ask for the GOP nomination. The Republican Party has become just like one of his properties - something which has lost its value except as a tax write off. Should Trump run in 2024 and lose yet again to Biden his screams of fraud will be ten times as loud. If there is a Republican majority in the House of Representatives then they will not certify Biden's re-election. Should that happen and the Supreme Court upholds it then all bets are off. We will cease to be a democracy. We might still be called the United States of America, but this would be in name only.

There are only two scenarios under which Trump would not run - he is in jail or he is dead. If he is in jail his supporters will view him as a political prisoner, a martyr worthy shedding blood over. If he is dead there will be a critical mass of his supporters who believe he is not dead or will return to save us like Jesus. Let's keep in mind these people think this guy is John F. Kennedy, Jr.

Thus the question isn't whether Trump will run. The question is will Trump win. 

I'm afraid this not beyond the realm of possibility. It is entirely possible Trump could defeat Biden in 2024. It is more likely that Biden will defeat Trump yet again and Trump will once again claim fraud. As mentioned above, a Republican controlled House would likely go along with him. And in the unlikely event they decided to certify Biden's win then Trump will try to gain the White House by force. 

Regardless of which scenario returns to the White House it will mark the end of America as a Republic and our democratic experiment will be over. Life in America as we know it will become nasty, brutish and short. Far more so than it is now. And a lot of us will have brought this on ourselves because we only know democracy and look upon it only with contempt. Once our democracy is gone we will want it back. We might get it back but it won't be in our lifetime. Until we do get it back there will be a lot of death and suffering before that happens. 

It doesn't have to be this way. The only way this happens is if a) Joe Biden is a successful President and b) should Biden be re-elected that the democratic guardrails can again somehow resist Trump and his supporters both in and out of government from seizing power. This is to what it has come down.