Monday, December 28, 2020

Snell Might Not Be So Swell in San Diego

The San Diego Padres have acquired 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays for three prospects - right handed pitchers Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox and catcher Blake Hunt as well as catcher Francisco Mejia. 

While some laud the Padres acquiring Snell as a game changer, I take a more cautious view. Snell, who turned 28 earlier this month, had a sensational 2018 when he led the AL in wins (21) and ERA (1.89). But the year before his Cy Young campaign, Snell was 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA and the year after he was 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA. I cannot help but wonder if 2017 and 2019 Blake Snell are more representative than 2018 Blake Snell.

To be fair, Snell had a decent year in 2020 going 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts in the COVID shortened season. Of course, Snell had a sensational World Series and was unjustly removed in Game 6 as the Dodgers would win their first World Series title in 32 years. 

This isn't to say Snell can't have a good big league career. But at this point I think his Cy Young year was an aberration. If the Padres are expecting a Cy Young winner they might be disappointed.

The Rays are also very savvy when it comes to trades and spotting talent. I think the Rays will ultimately get the better half of this deal. Perhaps not in 2021 but perhaps in 2022. The Rays are always looking to the future. The only drawback to that is that they don't always look at what is in front of them as was the case in the World Series. And even if Snell never wins another Cy Young he does stand a good chance of attaining World Series glory in San Diego.

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