Tuesday, August 1, 2017

MLB Notes for July: Cubs Take Charge of NL Central

Until now, the Chicago Cubs have bore little resemblance to the team that won 103 games and their first World Series title in 108 years.

At the beginning of July, the Cubs were a .500 club and by the All-Star Break they were under .500 5.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. But since the All-Star Break, the Cubs are 13-3 and now lead the Brew Crew by 2.5 games. Over this same period, the Brewers are 5-11. How did the Cubs do it? Jose Quintana brought stability to the starting rotation, Wellington Castillo brought stability behind the plate and the rest of the team started to hit.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates aren't entirely out of the NL Central picture at 4.5 and 5.5 games off the pace respectively. But they will need a strong August to continue to be relevant. Only the Cincinnati Reds can truly be said to be looking to next year as they went 8-18 and now stand 14.5 games back of the Cubs.

While being 14.5 games off the pace puts you in last in the NL Central, in the NL East & NL West it puts you in third. But there's a world of difference in being in third between East and West. But first let's look at the division leaders. The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to play other worldly baseball going 20-3 during July finishing the month with 8 straight wins. Since June 7th, the Dodgers are 38-6. Since the All-Star Break, the Dodgers have expanded their lead on the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies from 7.5 and 9.5 respectively to 14 and 14.5 games, respectively. But the D'Backs and Rockies can take comfort in having little competition in the NL Wild Card race. Their nearest competitor is the Brewers who are 5.5 games behind the Rockies and stand a better chance of setting their sights on the NL Central.

Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins and New York Mets also stand 14 and 14.5 games back of the Washington Nationals in the NL East. Unlike the D'Backs and Rockies, neither the Marlins nor Mets have NL Wild Card aspirations. Ditto for the Atlanta Braves who have lost five in a row and 8 of their last 10 games. Conversely, the Philadelphia Phillies have won five in a row and 7 of their last 10 games. It might not mean much in the NL East, but they no longer own MLB's worst record. That dubious distinction now belong to the San Francisco Giants who are now 35 games back of the Dodgers. Any combination of Dodgers wins and Giants losses equally 22 will formally eliminate the former three time World Series champions. With the way the Dodgers are playing and the way the Giants are playing, this could occur by the middle of August.

With the unbelievable play of the Dodgers and the Cubs surge, the Washington Nationals get lost in the shuffle. But the addition of Ryan Madson, Jimmy Doolittle and Brandon Kintzler to their bullpen should not be underestimated down the stretch nor by either the Cubs or Dodgers when it comes to the post-season.

All is quiet on the AL West front with the Houston Astros maintaining a 16 game lead over the Seattle Mariners. The Astros have scarcely missed a beat despite a thumb injury to superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. Pundits are disappointed the team didn't acquire more than Francisco Liriano during the trade deadline, but he gives a young starting rotation all the depth they need. The Mariners are 2.5 games off the second AL Wild Card spot, but the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Texas Rangers and Oakland A's are thinking ahead to 2018. Actually the A's are thinking ahead to when they get a new ballpark. When that comes is anyone's guess.

The Cleveland Indians are still on top of the AL Central. Both the Tribe and the Kansas City Royals were strong after the All-Star Break with both clubs enjoying 9 game winning streaks. So the Royals weren't able to move on the Indians who have been able to hold onto to their two game lead. The Royals, however, now have the second AL Wild Card berth. However, the Minnesota Twins have faded losing 7 of their last 10 games and 5-10 since the All-Star Break. It appears the Twins are focusing on next season with their decision to deal closer Brandon Kintzler to the Nationals and Jaime Garcia to the Yankees only a start after acquiring him from the Atlanta Braves. The Chicago White Sox have been blowing up the team while the Tigers dealt J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. Can Justin Verlander be far behind?

At the All-Star Break, the Boston Red Sox had a 3.5 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. The Bronx Bombers now have a half game lead over the Bosox entering August. The Yankees are 12-6 since the All-Star Break. The acquisition of Todd Frazier has given offensive stability at third giving Chase Headley a new lease on life at first base while the return of David Robertson has stabilized a once shaky bullpen. The addition of Sonny Gray should brighten Yankee spirits. Although the Red Sox still have a share of the AL Wild Card, the team has been saddled with David Price's unpleasantness towards Red Sox broadcaster and Hall of Famer Dennis Eckersley.

But it could be worse. The Tampa Bay Rays have lost 7 of their last 10 games are now on the outside looking in with regard to the AL Wild Card as both the Rays and Mariners are 2.5 games back of the Royals for the second berth. The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays bring up the rear in the AL East. But the O's have been buyers acquiring Tim Beckham from the Chisox and Jeremy Hellickson from the Phillies while the Jays have sent pitchers Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith packing.

What will come by the end of August? Will the Dodgers come back down to earth? Will the Cubs continue to expand their lead in the NL Central? Or do the Brewers, Cardinals or Pirates have a second wind? Can the Red Sox get their house in order? Will the Royals overtake the Indians in the AL Central? Or will the Royals have to fend off the Rays and Mariners in the AL Wild Card? I'll let you know on September 1st.

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