Will Canada's Tories Benefit From Trump's "Endorsement" of The Liberals?

(Credit: Jess Frampton)

When Canada's Liberals chose Mark Carney to succeed Justin Trudeau as leader and as Prime Minister earlier this month, I gave the following assessment of the fortunes of Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre:

While it might be harder for Conservatives to tie Carney to Trudeau, Carney remains a political novice who might be vulnerable to Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a career politician who masquerades as a populist. Nevertheless, Poilievre is a formidable campaigner, and the Tories could easily label Carney as an elitist globalist. Then again, Carney could simply counter that former Tory Prime Minister Stephen Harper wanted him to be his Minister of Finance while he was serving as Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2012. 

While the Conservatives still lead the Liberals in the polls their lead has been shrinking in recent weeks amid both Trudeau's impending departure but President Trump's aforementioned tariffs and overt desire to annex Canada repeatedly referring to it as the 51st state has made voters give the Liberals another look. With Carney soon to move into 24 Sussex Drive, these polls could change in the Liberals favor especially as Trump dismisses Poilievre every bit as much as he dismisses Trudeau. While Poilievre has toughened his tone against Trump, it is not nearly as vigorous as that of fellow Tory Ontario Premier Doug Ford. 

For their part, the Tories think they may have got a gift from President Trump. During his interview with Laura Ingraham of Fox News when Trump said, "I'd rather deal with a Liberal than a Conservative."

With that, Poilievre took to X to do a happy dance:

Last night, President Donald Trump endorsed Mark Carney. Why? Because, as Trump said, he’s “easier” to deal with, and knows that I will be a tough negotiator and always put Canada First. Carney is weak and would cave to Trump’s demands, just like he did when he moved his company headquarters from Canada to New York City. Canadians don’t want a weak and conflicted leader. They want a strong Prime Minister who will put Canada First.

Well, I wouldn't call it an endorsement. Yet it might give Poilievre an opening, but it remains to be seen if Canadians are going to buy it.

After all, Poilievre twice used the term "Canada First". I suspect that when many Canadians here Poilievre say, "Canada First," they think he means "America First." And if they think that they are going to tie Poilievre with Trump and that will be the kiss of death for the Tories.

At the moment, when it comes to dealing with Trump and tariffs, Canadians favor Carney over Poilievre by a margin of 48% to 31%. When these same voters are asked who will "roll over and accept whatever Trump demands" Poilievre leads Carney by nearly a 2 to 1 margin (43% to 22%). This is the one poll that Poilievre does not want to lead.

It isn't to say this couldn't change. Carney is expected to ask Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament over the weekend and set an election for April 28th. Poilievre certainly has a change to regain his footing.

However, I suspect that while Poilievre will say he will be tougher with Trump, he will spend most of his time attacking Carney rather than Trump. It is worth noting that Trump's popularity with Canadian conservatives was on the rise in the days before the 2024 election. Although it is unclear how many of these conservatives' care for Trump's 51st state talk, Poilievre might be circumspect in criticizing Trump so as to not to alienate this segment of his base. If this is the case, then some voters will undoubtedly note Ontario Premier Doug Ford's unabashed criticism of Trump as when after winning a third consecutive majority government he vowed to "stare down the threat of Trump's tariffs."

Still, I don't underestimate Poilievre. He is a formidable campaigner, and this is one area where Carney is inexperienced and at a disadvantage.

So, let's say for argument's sake that Trump would prefer to deal with a Liberal government than a Conservative government and Canadians decide to elect the Tories. If Poilievre becomes Prime Minister, does anyone honestly think it will soften Trump's 51st state rhetoric? How long would it be before Trump called him Governor Poilievre?

When I visited Canada nearly a year ago, the Trudeau Liberals were in the process of implementing the carbon tax. At that point, I made the case the next Canadian election was Poilievre's to lose. 

But that was before Americans decided to give reward a convicted felon with the presidency. With Trump's contemptuous attitude towards Canada loud and clear and with Trudeau gone, the election is now Mark Carney's to lose. 

What was once a 20 point plus lead for Poilievre and the Tories is now a 7-point lead for Carney and the Liberals and possibly climbing. The Liberals, who have governed in back-to-back minority governments under Trudeau and were headed for electoral disaster, now have a chance to win a majority government mostly at the expense of the NDP.

Trump has hit a raw nerve with Canadians with his ceaseless attacks. Barring a disastrous debate performance from Mark Carney or some other serious indiscretion, he and the Liberals are more trusted than Pierre Poilievre and the Tories to take on Trump, tariffs and, most importantly, stand up for Canada.