Will Eisenkot Form a Coalition & Become Israel's Next PM?

Yesterday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog picked opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form a new government following last month's legislative elections.

While Eisenkot's Yashar Party won fewer seats in the Israeli Knesset than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's party, a majority of Knesset members nominated Eisenkot to form a government.

Eisenkot will now have 4 to 6 weeks to do so. If he fails to do so, then Netanyahu will have crack at it. There is a possibility that someone else could be called upon to form a government if both Eisenkot and Netanyahu fail. But it is more likely than not that another election would need to be called.

It isn't clear what path Eisenkot has before him. He will not form a national unity government with Netanyahu. I don't blame him because when Benny Gantz formed a national unity government with Netanyahu along the lines of the power sharing arrangement Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir had in the 1980s, Bibi reneged on his end of the deal after failing to pass a budget. Eisenkot has ruled out working with the Arab parties and he has no love lost for the ultra-Orthodox parties. This pretty much leaves allies of Bibi. But even if they decide to go with Eisenkot who can say that Bibi won't be able to lure them back as he did when he undercut Naftali Bennett?

There are those who dismiss Eisenkot as Bibi-lite. Aside from their temperaments, I think Eisenkot differs from Netanyahu in two related respects. Eisenkot would reverse Netanyahu's attempts to rein in the independence of Israel's judiciary and consequently permit an independent inquiry into October 7th proceed.

Of course, Hamas is responsible for carrying out the attacks of October 7th. But as with the Yom Kippur War half a century earlier, an independent inquiry is necessary to determine if the government could have taken steps to either prevent the attack or at least mitigate it. It is also necessary to scrutinize the prosecution of the war itself. 

In this area, Eisenkot has credibility due to being a former IDF Chief of Staff as well as the fact that he has lost his son as well as two nephews since October 7th. 

If Eisenkot does become Prime Minister and does maintain the independence of Israel's judiciary and holds an independent inquiry into October 7th, I still think Israel will be treated as a pariah nation. The people and political leaders who hate Israel because it is Jewish now will continue to hate Israel because it is Jewish no matter who leads it. 

With that said, no one can be Prime Minister forever. While the onus is on Eisenkot to form a coalition, if he is successful in doing so, I would like to see what he can do with the power with which he is bestowed.