There Would Have Been No Attempted Coup in Russia Had Putin Stayed Out of Ukraine

Just a couple of thoughts on recent events in Russia. 

First and foremost, there would never have been coup attempt in Russia had Vladimir Putin stayed out of Ukraine. This might be stating the obvious but sometimes the obvious is well worth stating. After all, when Russia invaded Ukraine no one in Russia, least of all, Putin thought the war would last 16 months let alone 16 days. Putin thought Kyiv would fall in 48 hours. 

Second, the fact that the war is nearly halfway through its second year has made Putin vulnerable and Yegevny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group decided to test that vulnerability. Now I'm skeptical of Prigozhin's motives. On one hand, he claims Putin invaded Ukraine under false pretenses but was more than happy to be part of those pretenses and began doing Russia's dirty work in Ukraine nearly a decade ago. Prigozhin claimed his march on Moscow was a "master class" on how Russia should have conquered Kyiv. 

From where I sit, I think Prigozhin wants to be Russia's next Minister of Defense as much of his ire has been directed towards Sergei Shoigu, rather than towards Putin. While Putin would hate to appoint a man whose organization he described as "traitors" to the post making Prigozhin his Minister of Defense would be a classic case of keeping his friends close and his enemies closer.

At the moment Prigozhin is in Belarus following a deal brokered by Belarusian President Lukashenko. Some say Prigozhin is a "dead man walking." This is certainly possible, but I think killing Prigozhin would be a mistake as it would turn him into a martyr and incite Russians to take the streets thus further undermining the war effort in Ukraine. Frankly, I don't think Prigozhin is any better than Putin as the people of Mali will attest. However, unlike Putin, Prigozhin has improved his standing among Russians in recent days. 

Naturally, I don't underestimate Putin. Like all dictators, he plays for keeps. Putin will continue to prosecute the war in Ukraine come hell or high water. We can expect more missile attacks which kill Ukrainian teenagers enjoying a pizza. But Ukraine will continue to stand firm and hit back at Russia. So long as it does then Ukraine will be winning the war and Putin's vulnerability will soon be tested again be it by Prigozhin or some other forces.