Could The Supreme Court's Decision Ending Race Based Affirmative Action for College Admissions Help Republicans?

The U.S. Supreme Court today ruled that affirmative action policies by colleges and universities based on race are unconstitutional. 

This ruling comes just over a year after the Court overturned Roe v. Wade. 

While both decisions are historical and monumental that is where the similarity ends.

Overturning Roe was a deeply unpopular decision and helped Democrats retain the Senate and played a significant role in stopping the red wave in the House. One of the reasons for this was that it emboldened Republicans to enact or try to enact more restrictive abortion laws around the country galvanizing Democrats and independent voters. But even conservatively inclined voters in Kansas thought this was a bridge too far and they too chose to keep abortion legal last August.

While Democrats are every bit as outraged by this decision as they were by Dobbs last year as evidenced by President Biden's remarks, public opinion has a very different view of affirmative action in colleges and universities than they do abortion. At the time of the ruling, a Pew Research poll indicated 61% of Americans agreed abortion should be legal in most or all cases with 37% disagreeing. 

So, what does Pew have to say about affirmative action in colleges and universities? According to a Pew poll released earlier this month, 50% of Americans disapprove of race-based admissions policies while only 33% approve. Whites disapprove of race-based admissions policy by a near 2 to 1 margin (57% to 29%) with Asians disapproving 52% to 37%. Hispanics are evenly split on the subject at 39% apiece with only African Americans approving of race-based affirmative action policies (47% to 29%).

Of course, African Americans are a core, if not the very core of the Democratic Party's base and pressure will likely come to bear to do something regarding the Court's decision. But Democrats must be careful where it concerns affirmative action (be it at the collegiate level or in the job market) because this is a policy area which Republicans could exploit to their advantage. Republicans have spent most of their time deep in cult of personality and conspiracy theories and have been light on public policy. The GOP could be effective in peeling off Asian and Hispanic voters if they focus on an issue and do it in a way which resonates with those communities.

But focus isn't a Republican strong suit so long as they ask how high when defeated, former President Trump tells them to jump. There's a good chance that any opposition to race based affirmative action policies could be obscured by talk of critical race theory and white replacement theory not to mention whatever happens to be irritating Trump at the moment be it Jack Smith's family, Kevin McCarthy or washers and dryers. 

Notwithstanding the crazy, Democrats have to thread a very fine needle when it comes to affirmative action at colleges and universities.