Much has been made about the Chinese brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran which re-establishes relations between the two regimes seven years after diplomatic ties were cut.
There is the question of China becoming a Middle East power broker and lessening U.S. prestige within the region. There is also the question of Israel finding itself isolated after efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia as a bulwark against Iran amid Israel's constitutional crisis concerning the independence of its judiciary.
But there is one interesting detail about the deal. It is contingent upon the two countries re-establishing diplomatic ties "within a maximum period of two months."
With this announcement made four days ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran have 8 weeks to get this done. What if two months pass and diplomatic relations haven't been restored? Is that detail merely ignored? Or does the agreement collapse with everything going back to square one? If it is the latter, then it might explain why the Biden Administration has been calm about this development.
There is the not so small detail that Saudi Arabia and Iran are still fighting a proxy war in Yemen with the Saudis backing the government and Iran backing the Houthi rebels. An escalation in that conflict or perhaps a terrorist attack on Saudi or Iranian soil within the next weeks could jettison the deal leaving China with egg on its face.
Of course, exchanging ambassadors might be a mere formality. But until they do so then the ink has not yet dried on the Saudi-Iran deal
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