Five Thoughts on Trump's Indictment By Manhattan DA Bragg

So defeated former President Donald Trump will be indicted by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg after all. With that here are my five thoughts on the subject. 

1. What Are The Charges?

As of this writing the charges against Trump are sealed. But Trump is expected to be indicted on more than 30 counts. Are all of the charges related to hush money payments to adult movie star Stormy Daniels? Or is other business fraud involved? The devil, of course, is in the details. 

2. Republicans Are Standing By Trump

None of this will matter to Republicans who are standing by Trump to the bitter end rather than letting justice take its proper course. Trump owns the party and thus owns them. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has indicated his state will not cooperate with any attempts to extradite Trump to New York though this might be a symbolic, grandstanding gesture meant to appease Trump supporters as he mulls his own White House bid. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy doesn't know the charges any more than the rest of us, but that isn't stopping him from calling the indictment by Bragg "an unprecedented abuse of power."

3. There's No Guarantee Trump Will Be Convicted 

Notwithstanding McCarthy's claim that Bragg's prosecution of Trump constitutes an abuse of power, it is hardly any guarantee that Trump will be convicted of anything. As I argued last week, Trump's lawyers could file a motion to dismiss the case after Bragg rests his case or, failing that, the jury could always acquit Trump. While I look upon Trump with nothing but contempt, I recognize it is entirely possible that Bragg might present a less than compelling case. Unless Bragg withholds exculpatory evidence from Trump and/or his attorneys, this isn't prosecutorial misconduct. It would be that he failed to convince a jury that Trump is guilty of the crimes with which he is charged beyond a reasonable doubt. This happens in our court system all the time.

4. Will Trump Faces Charges Related to January 6th, Classified Documents at Mar-a-Lago and in Georgia?

Of course, Trump's legal troubles are hardly confined to Manhattan County. There is the small matter of summoning his supporters to violently prevent the peaceful transfer of power on January 6, 2021. There is also the fact that Trump willfully took classified documents which did not belong to him to Mar-a-Lago and refused to return them to the National Archives. In both cases, Trump has legal exposure to facing federal felonies. And then there is Fulton County DA Fani Willis' grand jury investigation into Trump trying to intimidate Georgia election officials including Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger into changing the outcome of the 2020 election. 

The decision of the Manhattan DA ought to have no bearing on whether Trump faces charges in the three aforementioned cases. However, it will be hard for a critical mass of the American electorate to accept Trump's claims that he is "most innocent man in the history of our country" should he face charges in all of these matters. 

5. Trump's Promise of "Death and Destruction"

While Trump proclaims to be the "most innocent man in the history of our country", he also promises "death and destruction" if he is indicted. Well, now he's been indicted. 

If Trump's supporters were prepared to ransack the U.S. Capitol and "hang Mike Pence", it is only a matter of time before they start to kill people in his name. Obviously, Bragg is at the top of their list. But I think they would be content with murdering a court officer to make a point or anyone else who got in the way to send a message of intimidation. Should this come to pass, a significant minority in this country will be prepared to celebrate. 

Notwithstanding this possibility, justice must take its course. To do otherwise would be to give into domestic terrorism and thus undermine our independent judiciary. Trump will get his day in court. His attorneys will have the opportunity to cross-examine prosecution witnesses. Bragg will have to prove his case beyond a reasonable doubt. It is possible that he might not have the evidence. In which case, Trump cannot be convicted on the wrong evidence and must be free to go about his way. This will be true if he is indicted in any other matter.

With that, the promise of "death and destruction" on an indictment (not a conviction) are not the words of an innocent man.