How Biden Could Beat Trump

Now that Joe Biden is for all intents and purposes the Democratic nominee the question is how can he defeat President Trump in November.

Obviously we are in extraordinary times as the United States is experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic and the worst of it isn't behind us. President Trump doesn't help matters by boasting about his ratings, ranting about Democratic Governors and the media, firing inspector generals for doing their job while boasting about potential cures of which he has a financial stake. Under the circumstances, it would appear Biden doesn't need to do a whole lot but act like a reasonable and compassionate human being.

Yet one must never underestimate Trump. He has an extremely loyal base that will run through a wall for him, rebuild that wall and run through it again. And then are Republicans willing to do nefarious things at the polls as was the case yesterday in Wisconsin. Who can say Trump wouldn't try to delay the election even though only Congress has that authority under the Constitution? And if that doesn't work Trump could try to pull an Orban suspend the Constitution under the guise of a public health crisis.

Of course, if Trump tries to do those things it would tell me that he can't beat Biden. Although Trump has a loyal base it has reached its ceiling. There are no other states which Trump can hope to wrest from Democrats. In order to be re-elected Trump has to retain every single state he won in 2016 including the six he wrested from Democrats (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Florida). This is a tall order under the best of circumstances. But with the COVID-19 pandemic and the double digit unemployment which will be soon to follow Team Trump should be very, very scared. Especially because there's nothing scary about Joe Biden.

The former VP walks into the race with 232 electoral college votes and would need 38 more. Truth be told, Biden will have 252 electoral college votes in his pocket because Pennsylvania is in his backyard. This would leave Biden needing only18 electoral college votes. Well, there are exactly 18 electoral college votes in Ohio. Yes, I know Ohio has a very popular Republican Governor in Mike DeWine. But DeWine has been doing everything Trump hasn't done where it concerns COVID-19. DeWine has shown independence from Trump regarding reopening the country for Easter and wearing a protective mask. DeWine might not keep his distance from Trump in the fall, but if there's daylight between DeWine and Trump then Biden has a chance in Ohio.

If Trump retained Ohio, Michigan's 16 electoral votes would make him two electoral college votes short of the White House. Given Trump's war of words with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and his belligerence to GM CEO Mary Barra (and the possibility Whitmer could be Biden's running mate) leads me to believe the Wolverine state might put its claws to Trump.

Biden could win the White House if he prevails in a) Pennsylvania and Ohio b) Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin c) Pennsylvania, Michigan and Iowa or d) Pennsylvania, Michigan and capturing a red state like Arizona or Georgia. Biden has consistently outpolled Trump in Arizona which has 11 electoral college votes. I'm sure John McCain would smile from Heaven if he knew Trump were beaten in the state he represented in the Senate for more than three decades. While Trump has outpolled Biden in Georgia thus far that could change if Biden puts Stacey Abrams on the ticket. I wonder how many Georgians are embarrassed Republican Governor Brian Kemp didn't know asymptomatic people could transmit COVID-19. Despite this newfound knowledge Kemp saw fit to re-open Georgia's beaches. Georgia's 16 electoral votes could loom quite large in November.

Of course, who knows what America will look like in seven months from now. By that time there might not be a single family who hasn't lost a loved one because of COVID-19. Couple that with an unemployment rate of 15-20%. In the face of all that Trump will persist making himself the victim. Under these conditions, a large enough segment of Republicans stays home and Biden wins a Bill Clinton like landslide recapturing states like Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Louisiana. The vote won't be so much for Biden as it would be against Trump. Whatever the motivation there is a plausible scenario where Joe Biden could defeat Donald Trump by a little or by a lot.