Parti Quebecois Elected to Minority Government; Coalition de Avenir Quebec Loses All Seats

(Snapshot from CBC coverage of YouTube ofQuebec Premier-elect Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's victory speech)

I have been watching Quebec election results, and the Parti Quebecois has been elected to a minority government. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon (a.k.a. PSPP) will become Quebec's new Premier. As of this writing, here the seat and popular vote distributions:

Parti Quebecois                    59    28.1%

Liberals                                40    24.1%

Progressive Conservatives   19    21.3%

Quebec Solidaire                   9     11.9%

The PQ finished 5 seats short of a majority and won less than 30% of the popular vote. While Plamondon might be Quebec's next Premier, he will be on a short leash.

What is most notable is that the governing Coalition de Avenir Quebec (CAQ) lost all of their seats. Originally elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022 with a greater margin with 90 seats under Francois Legeault, he left office earlier this year and was succeeded by Christine Frechette.

The CAQ collapse is reminiscent of the Tories under Kim Campbell in the 1993 Canadian election although voters' anger was directed at Brian Mulroney. However, the Tories did win 2 seats in that election.

Prior to tonight, there have been three instances in Canadian history in which provincial governments have lost all of their seats. Two of those instances took place in 1935 at the height of The Great Depression. In July 1935, voters in Prince Edward Island ousted the Conservative government with the Liberals winning all 30 seats. A month later, Alberta voters ousted every member of the United Farmers of Alberta government with the insurgent Social Credit Party beginning their 36-year dynasty under "Bible" Bill Aberhart. It would be more than 50 years until it happened again when New Brunswick voters tossed the Progressive Conservative government of Richard Hatfield in favor of Frank McKenna's Liberals who won all 58 seats in the 1987 provincial election.

It should be noted the CAQ actually earned more of the popular vote than the far-left Quebec Solidaire with 13.2% of the vote. But that is cold comfort to the CAQ who will not have seats in the Quebec National Assembly. Frechette did not announce her resignation during her concession speech. But it is only a matter of time before she tenders it.

The PQ only won 3 seats in the 2022 Quebec election. Plamondon moved the PQ to the right with his anti-immigration platform. While this boosted the PQ, they were denied an outright majority with their referendum talk even with the pledge not to hold one as long as Donald Trump remains in the White House. Quebec voters might have elected a separatist government, but they do not want to vote to leave Canada.

Quebec Liberals under Charles Milliard more than doubled their seat total from 18 to 40 while the Conservatives under Eric Duhaime won 19 seats marking the first time the Tories have won seats in the Quebec National Assembly since 1935 before Maurice Duplessis rebranded them as the Union Nationale.

Quebec Solidaire lost three seats resulting the loss of party status although you wouldn't know it if you heard Ruba Ghazal's speech this evening. Yet there is speculation that because the PQ has a minority government, it might give Quebec Solidaire party status as it is only other sovereigntist party in the National Assembly. Of course, Plamondon would have to jettison his anti-immigration platform to gain any measure of support. 

While Quebec might have a PQ government, a minority government will likely guarantee another election come 2028. In which case, Plamondon will still want to hold a referendum even with Donald Trump in the White House.