Carney Cobbles Together a Liberal Majority Government Nearly a Year After Canadian Federal Election

Tonight, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has gone from a Liberal minority to a Liberal majority government.

Thus far the Liberals have earned two by-election victories in the Toronto area - one in the riding of University-Rosedale which is in downtown Toronto and the other in Scarborough Southwest which is situated east of downtown. The latter riding was won by Dolly Begum who began 2026 as the Deputy Leader of the Ontario NDP before she jumped from provincial to federal politics and in the process jumped ship to the Liberals. 

The Liberals could win one more byelection in Quebec having pulled ahead of the Bloc Quebecois in the constituency of Terrebonne, a north shore suburb of Montreal. In last year's election, the BQ won the seat, but a recount gave it to the Liberals by a single vote until the Supreme Court of Canada annulled the result in February and ordered the by-election. If the Liberals sweep that will give them 174 seats - a two-seat majority but a majority just the same.

But the journey from minority to majority has been months in the making. Nearly a year ago, the Liberals hung onto a minority parliament under Carney's leadership. President Trump's jingoistic gave the Liberals a lifeline with Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

In the year since the election, the Liberals have cobbled together a majority government primarily through defections from both the Conservatives and the NDP. Between November 2025 and February 2026, three Tory MPs jumped ship to the Liberals - Chris d'Entremont from Nova Scotia, Michael Ma from Markham, just northeast of Toronto and Edmonton area MP Matt Jeneroux.

Last month, the Liberals earned a defection from the NDP in Lori Idlout, who is an MP from the Nunavut territory. Then last week, another Conservative MP joined the Liberal ranks. Marilyn Gladu, an MP from Sarnia, Ontario situated on the bottom of Lake Huron about three hours southwest of Toronto, became the latest and most surprising defection. A former federal leadership candidate for the Tories, Gladu is known for her socially conservative views on LGBTQ issues.

There are those who question the legitimacy of the Liberals getting to a majority government primarily by floor crossings. Many moons ago there was a NDP MP from Nova Scotia named Peter Stoffer who vigorously opposed floor crossings and proposed a private members bill which would not permit floor crossings. Any MP who left his or her party would either have to sit as an independent or if they wished to join another party, resign their seat and run in a by-election under their new party affiliation.

On a personal note, I twice interviewed with Stoffer for job in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Needless to say, I was not selected but found him to be an affable fellow. 

While I am not unsympathetic to Stoffer's argument, as Michael Barone has long argued, "All process arguments are insincere." 

Poilievre rails against floor crossings. But if Poilievre had the chance to lure Liberal, NDP and maybe even a Bloc Quebecois MP into the Tory fold so he could become Prime Minister, does anyone honestly think he would pass up the opportunity?

The fact is that Mark Carney is better than Pierre Poilievre at politics. If Poilievre had done a better job of building relationships within his caucus, then perhaps there would not be a Liberal majority today. Meanwhile, the NDP is a sinking ship at the federal level. Avi Lewis might excite the far-left grassroots, but he literally accepted his party's leadership in front of a Palestinian flag, not a Canadian one. 

The Liberals under Carney want to govern while the Tories and NDP want to appeal to their lunatic fringes. So long as this is the case coupled with Donald Trump's presence in the White House then the Liberal majority is staying put for the foreseeable future.

This isn't to say that I don't have concerns about Carney. I am deeply concerned about Carney's priorities where it concerns Israel and Canadian Jews and their institutions being expelled from civil society. Alas, the NDP is even worse when it comes to Israel and the status of Canadian Jews while I'm afraid the Tories are merely paying lip service.

As it stands, Carney gets the Liberals back into the majority government column. We'll see if Canadians will want to keep this Liberal majority in 2029. If Trump decides to create a constitutional crisis and run for a third term or if we choose another Republican President hostile to Canada, then Mark Carney will call 24 Sussex Drive home for years to come.