It Appears That Canada Has Elected a 4th Consecutive Liberal Government

It is nearing 1 a.m., and here are the Canadian election results as of this writing.

Liberals - 163

Conservatives - 148

Bloc Quebecois - 23

NDP - 8

Green - 1

Keep in mind that these aren't final numbers. These numbers represent both elected and leading totals.

But if these numbers hold this will very likely be another Liberal minority government this time led by Mark Carney.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finished in third place in his Vancouver suburban riding with the NDP vote having collapsed nationally and likely to lose party status in the House of Commons. As I am writing this, Singh has announced his intention to resign that position once an interim leader has been chosen. 

Yet the NDP vote collapse didn't universally benefit the Liberals. NDP voters in blue collar ridings in Ontario cities like London, Hamilton and Windsor voted Conservative. While the Conservatives increased their seat total and their vote total, Pierre Poilievre currently trails the Liberals in his Ottawa area riding while Carney easily won his riding in neighboring Nepean. It is a theoretically possible the Tories could form a minority government with the Bloc Quebecois but that would be a tall task if Poilievre doesn't win his seat. The problem for Poilievre (whether or not he wins his seat) is that he was expected to be Canada's next Prime Minister a few short months ago. Even with a strong showing, the outcome is still a bitter pill to swallow. But to give Poilievre his due, he ceded the election and criticized Trump. But his criticism came a day late and millions of dollars short. Ceding the election and criticizing Trump, however, did not endear him to his audience.

The problem for Poilievre was that President Trump has come charging into Canada like a bull in a China shop and Poilievre could do little to stand up to him. If not for Trump's imposition of tariffs and his refusal to recognize Canada as a sovereign country, Canadians would not have given Liberal a fourth chance at minding the store. While Poilievre spoke of the "lost Liberal decade", a plurality of voters is worried about the four years to come with Trump looming large are most confident with Mark Carney sitting across from him.

Should there be another Liberal minority government there is a distinct possibility Canadians could end up voting again before the end of 2025. Should this come to pass will Canadians give Carney a majority? Or will they pass the baton to Poilievre and the Tories? Either way Trump and a chauvinistic America will still loom large. Buckle up!!! This bumpy ride is going to get rockier.