As widely expected, new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has asked Govenor General Mary Simon to dissolve parliament and call an election for April 28th - 5 weeks from tomorrow.
Three months ago, the last thing Liberals wanted was an early election as Chrystia Freeland abruptly resigned from cabinet as Justin Trudeau had lost the confidence of Canadians. Trudeau announced his resignation in January.
Then Donald Trump returned to the White House and began referring to Canada as the 51st state while imposing harsh tariffs on Canadian goods.
This lit a fire under Canadians who began boycotting American goods and cancelling travel plans south of the border. It also reignited support for the previously demoralized and moribund Liberals.
For their part, Liberals wisely chose former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who had never held elected office, to succeed Trudeau on March 9th. Carney was officially sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14th.
Now only 10 days on the job, Carney has called an election with momentum on his side.
The Tories led by Pierre Poilievre are trying to get their mojo back. But Mike Myers has already endorsed Carney. Still, one cannot count out the Tories and Poilievre who is an experienced campaigner and debate while Carney is a political novice. Should Poilievre regain his footing, Carney would be the shortest tenured Prime Minister in Canadian history, a distinction held by Sir Charles Tupper, a Tory who served in office for 69 days in 1896, before Liberal Wilfrid Laurier would dominate Canadian politics for the next 15 years.
Yet it will be an uphill battle for Poilievre so long as Canadians perceive him to be MAGA aligned politician. While Trump has not been complimentary of Poilievre, Elon Musk has given Poilievre the same praise he gave to Germany's far-right AfD.
If Poilievre cannot convince Canadians he is independent of Trump and Musk, then the Liberals will be rewarded with a majority government. A Liberal majority would come at the expense of the NDP which has been hemorrhaging support. This would likely mean the resignation of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh who has been at the job since 2017 with no obvious successor. Popular Northern Ontario NDP MP Charlie Angus is retiring from electoral politics.
The independent variables in all of this are President Trump and Elon Musk. The more he talks, the more this will benefit the Liberals. That is unless, Trump starts to focus his criticism on Poilievre rather than Carney. Will this give Canadians second thoughts about Carney? On the other hand, this could be neutralized if Musk continues to lavish praise upon Poilievre.
What will set this Canadian election apart from all Canadian elections before it is that America and the whole world will be watching.
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