Today, President Trump says he has made a decision concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal, but won't specify his decision right now. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie thinks Trump is withdrawing from the deal while Secretary of State Rex Tillerson believes he will renegotiate.
To my way of thinking, I am inclined to agree with Tillerson. I believe Trump will renegotiate the deal.
First, if Trump were going to pull out of the deal why wouldn't he have dropped that bombshell in front of the rest of the world?
Second, there are key figures in Trump's administration who support the Iran deal - Tillerson, John Kelly, James Mattis and H.R. McMaster. I can't see Trump deviating so significantly from this consensus among key members of his foreign and defense policy inner circle.
Third, Trump's reputation is that of a deal maker. The next best thing to negotiating a deal is renegotiating one.
Fourth, Trump has favored negotiations with Iran in the past. He said as much when then Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in New York City to address the UN General Assembly exactly 10 years ago this month as demonstrated by this appearance on Fox & Friends when he spoke far more favorably of Ahmadinejad than he did of President Bush. During this appearance Trump said, "Maybe the President, instead of saying let’s not even see this guy, maybe he should be negotiating with him, maybe he should be talking with him."
Fifth, President Trump has until October 15th to certify the Iran Nuclear Deal. I believe the Trump Administration will use the next three weeks to develop a framework with which to renegotiate it.
I hope I am wrong about this scenario. I hope President Trump puts an end to the Iran Nuclear Deal. If he does it will be his greatest foreign policy legacy. Which is exactly why I think he won't do it.
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