Following a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran, both Israel and President Trump have reported that the Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed in an airstrike.
For their part, Iran claims Khamenei is alive, well and "commanding the field." Yet one must consider this to be a "Baghdad Bob" moment.
Trump told the Iranian people, “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.”
Presuming that Khamenei and other members of Iran's leadership are dead or incapacitated, who will succeed them?
Consider what I wrote scarcely 48 hours ago:
Yet let us suppose there is military action in Iran. Who can say it would be any different than what occurred in Venezuela earlier this year where they extracted Nicolas Maduro only to install his vice-president as his replacement? Meet the new Ayatollah. Same as the old Ayatollah.
I also think the words of Adrienne Mahsa Varkiani, an Iranian American, who is the Deputy Editor of The New Republic, should be given weight in a piece she wrote today titled "I Want Iran To Be Free More Than Anything; I Also Don't Trust Trump":
Trump can talk about how he cares about the freedom of Iranians all he wants, but everything he has done until now makes that hard to believe.
Just examine how the Trump administration is viewing its operation inside Iran. This round of strikes on Iran is not called “Operation Aiding Freedom”—or some feel-good cliche. It is called “Operation Epic Fury,” which is being led by the newly-renamed “Department of War.”
But if that is too small a point, perhaps we can look at what Trump has really done to support the Iranian people thus far. In 2017, just one week after becoming president, he banned all Iranians from the United States. It is almost silly to mention that now, given how much worse things have gotten since then, but at the time, it was a nightmare. For a few days, that ban applied to valid visa holders and permanent residents as well. I remember calling my cousins with green cards who were outside the country, trying to explain to them in my broken Farsi the latest on immigration law.
That ban has only gotten worse in his second term—with no new visa applicants allowed to enter the United States. (In his first term, Trump eventually relented and allowed Iranian students the opportunity to continue to come study here.)
Varkiani then goes on to decry Trump's decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. I would part company from her on that for the simple reason the JCPOA had the effect of giving a lifeline to the Khamenei and company and only prolonged the suffering of the Iranian people. It is also worth noting that President Biden did not see fit to rejoin the JCPOA after rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, UNESCO and WHO.
Nevertheless, I share Varkiani's mistrust of Trump regarding the aspirations of the Iranian people when he has gone out of his way never to welcome Iranians who opposed the regime in this country. In which case, who can say that Trump won't reach an agreement with a member of the existing regime as he has done in Venezuela? Or perhaps we will see the restoration of the House of Pahlavi. The days of the Shah of Iran don't look so bad after nearly half a century of rule by Shiite Islamic fundamentalists, but there were plenty of human rights abuses under the last Shah of Iran. Is there any reason to believe that Reza Pahlavi would be better than his father? After all, Bashar al-Assad proved to be more ruthless than his father in Syria.
Naturally, I shed no tears for Khamenei and hope the Iranian regime will come to a long overdue end. But I worry that Iranians will simply trade one murderous regime for another. And if Trump and his so-called Board of Peace are to be involved in a post-Khamenei Iran, the opportunities for corruption will be staggering.
However, even if Iran's new regime is less than stellar, if it no longer has designs on the destruction of Israel then it will be one less thing for the Jewish state to worry about. Not that Israel isn't still surrounded by countries and an international community hostile to it. But not having a nuclear design with designs to use that nuclear power against Israel would be quite significant.
Of course, if it turns out that Khamenei is in fact not dead then both Trump and Israel will have egg on their face. Such an error would put the wind back into the sails of the Iranian regime. That would be most unfortunate. If you are trying to kill the Ayatollah, you better not miss.
UPDATE: Khamenei has been confirmed dead with Iranians taking to the streets to celebrate. I hope their celebration isn't short-lived. I also recall rejoicing in Baghdad after the fall of Saddam in 2003. Only time will tell.
No comments:
Post a Comment