What Will Happen Between Israel & Iran?

After years of putting up with Iran's nuclear buildup, its intransigence with the international community and its repeated threats to annihilate the Jewish state, Israel decided enough was enough and this morning began taking out the Islamic Republic's nuclear program as well as its key political, military and scientific leaders

The question, of course, is what will come of it.

The best-case scenario is Israel render Iran's nuclear program obsolete, and the Iranians overthrow the mullahs in favor of democratic governance and the two countries become allies.

Naturally, this outcome is far from guaranteed. 

There is President Trump's mercurial disposition. The Iranian regime may signal to Trump that it is ready to accept any deal his administration offers. Such a scenario would be too much for Trump to refuse. It would mean Trump would put the kibosh on Israel's military campaign, the Iranian regime would remain in place, and he would take credit for the deal. Indeed, Trump is offering Iran "a second chance" and I think there's a very good chance this comes to pass. 

Mind you, this would merely invite Iran to start its nuclear program anew but Trump nor his newfound friends within the Obama Administration wouldn't care. That would be someone else's problem. But it would remain Israel's problem. 

Let us also consider the possibility that Iran sheds its Islamic regime of more than 45 years. But instead of being replaced by democracy, it is replaced by, yet another strain of Islamic fundamentalism be it Shiite or Sunni in origin which is even more determined to wipe out Israel. Or at the very least one could certainly see the sort of years long insurgency which came to pass after U.S. and coalition forces disposed of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003. 

Under the circumstances, it is a risk Israel has to be prepared to take. The status quo is simply unsustainable. Aside from Iran's nuclear ambitions, there is its sponsorship of terrorism through both Hamas and Hezbollah and against Jewish institutions outside of the Middle East such as the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina which claimed the lives of 85 people. 

In taking this risk, Israel knew it would face retaliation as has occurred with missile strikes in Tel Aviv although no fatalities have been reported as of this writing. Chances are this will change. 

In which case, it is a cost Israel must bear. Then again this is far from the first time Israel and the Jewish people have borne the cost and it will be far from the last. One can only hope the outcome is worth the price.