As of this writing, the Tories are leading or elected in 41 out of 55 seats. Meanwhile, the NDP has supplanted the Liberals as the province's official opposition. The NDP, led by Claudia Chender, is leading or elected in 9 seats while the Liberals led by Zach Churchill is leading or elected in only 3 seats. This represents the Nova Scotia Liberals worst showing in a provincial election in over 60 years although they have a slight lead over the NDP in the popular vote (22.8% to 22%). There is also an independent leading in a single seat.
When Premier Houston called the snap election, he had broken a promise of holding fixed date elections and Nova Scotia was to hold its vote on July 15, 2025. Not only did voters not punish Houston for holding an early election, but they also increased the Tory majority winning as many 10 more seats than they had at the dissolution of the legislature.
It would appear that voters in Nova Scotia were far angrier at Justin Trudeau than Tim Houston and took out their frustration on Churchill. Many in Nova Scotia are angry at Trudeau for his slow response to illegal lobster fishing in the province. It makes Susan Holt's triumph for the Liberals last month in neighboring New Brunswick all the more remarkable.
It was also the only one of four Canadian provincial elections where governments changed hands. The Nova Scotia Tories join the B.C. NDP and the Saskatchewan Party in holding onto power. Yet somehow, I doubt that Justin Trudeau will be part of that company next year.
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