Sunday, April 2, 2023

Could Hutchinson Attract an Anti-Trump Protest Vote in The 2024 GOP Primaries?

Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson told ABC's Jonathan Karl he is going to seek the 2024 Republican nomination and called upon defeated, former President Trump to drop out of the race amid his indictment by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg last week. A formal announcement is expected later this month.

As with Nikki Haley, I have no illusions that Hutchinson is going to be the Republican nominee. But by calling upon Trump to step down he is giving Republican voters a chance to show what level of discontent, if any, they have with Trump.

If Hutchinson polls at 1% or 2% in Iowa or New Hampshire, then we know there is no room for anti-Trump sentiment in the Republican Party even if indictments by the DOJ and the Fulton County DA follow. However, if Hutchinson gets 20% of the vote in Iowa and New Hampshire then we have something to talk about. A critical mass of the Republican Party voters will have shown they want to move on from Trump (though not necessarily Trumpism).

Of course, if Hutchinson does well in Iowa and/or New Hampshire and puts a scare into Trump then he will remind Republican voters how Hutchinson praised President Biden for "seamless" vaccine distribution and "de-politicizing" our response to COVID. Assuming this comes to pass, Trump gets the nomination and Hutchinson ends up endorsing him then his candidacy will have been all for naught. 

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