Friday, November 1, 2019

10 Depressing Reasons Why Trump Will Be Re-Elected

In one November from now, Americans will go to the polls to determine Donald Trump’s fate as well as our own. Despite everything Trump has said and done since his election nearly three years ago, I believe there are a sufficient number of voters who will see fit to re-elect him in a year from now. This is a depressing thought. But no matter how depressing the prospect of a second Trump term, we cannot and must not discount the possibility. With this in mind, here are 10 depressing reasons why I have concluded that voters will stick with Trump on November 3, 2020.



1. People Are Better Off Now Than They Were Four Years Ago

As of September 2019, the national unemployment rate is 3.5%. As the Trump White House boasts, it is the 19th consecutive month the unemployment rate has been at 4% or lower and represents the lowest monthly unemployment rate since May 1969. But unemployment has been trending downward for nearly the entire 2010s. After reaching 10% in October 2009, during President Obama’s first year in office, the unemployment rate had been cut in half by September 2015. When Trump entered office, the unemployment rate was 4.7%.

So Trump inherited a good economic situation from Obama. Mind you, Obama is no more responsible for the decline in unemployment which took place while he was in office than Trump is. Chances are if voters had elected John McCain, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton in successive presidential elections we would very likely have the same level of low unemployment. But politicians being politicians, they like taking credit for things with which they have little or nothing to do. In Trump’s case, he takes bragging to a whole new level characterizing the economy under his watch as “the greatest in the history of the country” despite all evidence to the contrary.

In Trump’s case, an argument can be made that his tariff policies on allies and adversaries alike could put the U.S. economy into recession. It is estimated that Trump’s tariffs increase average costs per household between $500 to $1700 and lower annual G.D.P.in 2020 an estimated 0.3% to 1%. It might not seem like a lot. But even with unemployment at 3.5%, the manufacturing index of 47.8 in September 2019 was at its lowest level since June 2009 when the country was still in the midst of the Great Recession. The writing is on the wall. Just not on the one Trump says he wants to build.

Notwithstanding these warning signs, by the time the full impact of Trump’s tariffs are realized it will be well after the election and Trump will be safe from the voters. As long as a critical mass of voters are content with their lot in life then they will see no reason to rock the boat even if it is beginning to take on water.

2. Trump’s Tweets Work

For all of their vulgarity and balderdash, President Trump’s tweets work. They work because Trump tweets prolifically and repeats the same messages over and over again. Think “hoax”, “witch hunt”, “fake news” and targets like Hillary Clinton, James Comey and Robert Mueller not to mention the present Democratic field while praising his own efforts to no end. Tweet and retweet the same message, no matter how false, and you can fool enough of the people to believe it as the gospel truth.

Kamala Harris only makes matters worse by demanding Twitter suspend Trump’s account. While Harris is correct to say that Trump’s words are irresponsible, suspending his account would be equally irresponsible. Such a measure would turn Trump into a martyr and have the effecting of mobilizing conservatives – even those not inclined to support him. Then there are practical considerations. Banning Trump from Twitter would not prevent him from communicating by other means. When it comes to Trump’s tweets the answer isn’t banning speech but better speech. Unfortunately, Democrats don’t seem to be willing to offer anything better thus giving voters little reason to change their minds.

3. His Supporters Aren’t Abandoning Him

Trump’s tweets are the foundation of his presidency. It’s like attending a Trump rally without ever having to leave the comfort of your home. Not a single inch of that “big, beautiful wall” along the southern border has been built and, if it ever gets under way, Mexico won’t be paying for it.

You would think Trump’s supporters would feel betrayed by the President. But thought doesn’t enter into the equation. Accomplishments don’t matter. Wall or no wall, Trump’s supporters aren’t abandoning him. They would run through a wall for them and then rebuild it only to run through it again.

After Trump received strong criticism for putting anti-racists and white supremacists on the same moral plane after Charlottesville in August 2017, BBC journalist Katty Kay made the case why Trump supporters will never abandon him:

He defies the normal metrics for success because his voters don't so much support him for what he does as they adore him for what he's against.

Mr. Trump is against the political establishment (the media, the Republican Party, political grandees like the Bushes and the Clintons) and change (which encompasses everything you had but fear you are losing) and he's against the world (which has taken jobs and sent immigrants to take over America).

Peter Wehner, a so-called “establishment Republican” who worked for President Reagan and both Bushes, takes a slightly different view. Wehner believes there are Trump supporters who realize how dangerous he is, but cannot bring themselves to admit they are wrong. “To indict him is to indict themselves, and to indict their own judgment, and that’s hard for any human being," Wehner wrote, "They will defend him regardless of what happens, come hell or high water.”

Whether Trump supporters are true believers or just unwilling to admit they were wrong, they are standing by him. Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota political science professor and founder of the blog Smart Politics notes, “Given everything that has happened to his administration, what I think is very telling, is [his base of support] has not moved more than a few inches. Here in Minnesota it has also been pretty consistent; it was 46 when he was inaugurated, and its 43 now. Some of his negatives have risen, but those who support him have remained relatively stable.”

And with stability comes re-election.

4. People Have Short Memories

Despite the stability in his support, President Trump has behaved in a manner which suggests otherwise. He has said and done many things inconceivable for the President of the United States much less a normal human being.

There is Trump’s constant refrain that the media as “an enemy of the people”, referring to black majority nations as “shithole countries”, his barbs at Senator John McCain months after his death while casually accusing Mueller’s investigators, FBI officials and various members of treason, a crime punishable by imprisonment or death. But for many this is all water under the bridge.

How many of you have already forgotten the video depicting Trump graphically executing his critics in the Democratic Party and the media? This wasn’t Trump’s doing in particular, but it was shown in a room of his most fervent supporters at his Doral resort in Miami. This would be the same Doral which would have hosted next year’s G-7 Summit if not for overwhelming negative public opinion.

Then there are the lies. More than 12,000 from which to choose. Most of these are the same lies – the wall is being built, the economy is the greatest ever, he passed the largest tax cut ever, Russia didn’t interfere in the 2016 election, etc. Then there was the time he deployed a sharpie to claim that Alabama was in the path of Hurricane Dorian and insisted that his lie was true. This might be funny if it wasn't for Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross threatening the jobs of NOAA officials who contradicted Trump - by stating the facts. It's bad enough that Trump lies, but his Cabinet is demanding that civil servants aid and abet those lies or lose their livelihood. Who would want to live in that kind of America?

But the barrage of balderdash and onslaught of insults is so voluminous it is hard to keep up. One outrage can easily make one forget the hundred which came before it. How many of you remember the beginning of 2019 when there was a partial shutdown of the federal government for five weeks? This might as well have been five years ago.

If not for the recent passing of Elijah Cummings, it would have been easy to forget that the former Baltimore area Congressman was a target of racially charged tweets by Trump only three months ago. Tweets which characterized Cummings’ district as "a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess" and that "no human being would want to live there.” Of course, many human beings live in Maryland’s 7th District and most of them are African-American. This is the sort of thing we ought to remember this when entering the voting booth. But by the time November 2020 comes around, for most people, Elijah Cummings will scarcely be a footnote in the news cycle.

Those who support Trump will either dismiss his insults and lies as fake news or wear it as a badge of honor. Voters who have fewer illusions about Trump, but distrust politicians in general may be inclined to conclude that Trump is no worse than anyone else. But as former world chess champion and Russian exile Gary Kasparov put it, “The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate truth.” If re-electing Trump doesn’t annihilate the truth, it will collapse its foundation and thereby take decades to rebuild.

5. Impeachment is Dead on Arrival

President Trump brazenly called upon recently elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to do him a favor and investigate Joe Biden. If he didn’t it would be a shame if anything happened to their military aid. After initial denials, this account of events was confirmed by White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney (before he denied ever saying any such thing hours later) and by acting Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, Jr. (who did not recant his account). Trump has also called upon China to investigate Biden in exchange for the easing of tariffs. Both of these are impeachable offenses.

While public support for impeachment has increased, so long as the Senate is controlled by Mitch McConnell impeachment is dead on arrival. The Republican Senators who don’t worship at Trump’s altar are scared to death that he will mock them on Twitter. And if they aren’t scared of Trump then they are scared of his supporters who claim impeachment is a coup. That it is a legitimate constitutional process means absolutely nothing to them. It certainly means nothing to the 30 Republican Congressmen who recently stormed a secure area of Congress to prevent a closed door impeachment hearing from proceeding. Trump supporters claim the impeachment process will be undoing a legitimate election. Even if one agrees Trump was legitimately elected in 2016 that doesn’t entitle him to engage in impeachable behavior in 2019. But let us remember Trump believes that being President entitles him to do “whatever the hell I want.”

6. “Investigating The Investigators” is Only Get Started

And what Trump wants to do is to turn the heat on the people who have investigated him during the Mueller Report which he has long characterized as a hoax and a witch hunt. What began as an administrative review of the origins of the Mueller Report by Attorney General William Barr in May has now turned into a criminal investigation led by U.S. attorney John Durham. This far more closely resembles a hoax and a witch hunt than the Mueller Report which actually resulted in a jail sentence for former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and a pending trial for longtime Trump advisor Roger Stone.

Notwithstanding Durham’s stellar reputation as a prosecutor, pressure might be brought to bear from the White House against Durham to lay charges given how Trump expects “bad things” to come of the inquiry. Considering how Trump has railed against the FBI by accusing it of treason, it would not shock me to see indictments against the likes of longtime Trump bogeymen Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Andrew McCabe and perhaps even against former FBI Director James Comey and Mueller himself.

Of course, any indictments which might be brought will have no legal merit whatsoever. There is only treason against the United States, not the President of the United States never mind a presidential candidate. But such indictments would have the effect of intimidating those who dare hold Trump to scrutiny, prevent further inquiry and accelerate this country’s descent into authoritarianism.

Even if no indictments are ever brought so long as the DOJ investigation against the Mueller Report is open, it will be grist for Trump’s mill during the election campaign and his supporters won’t be able to get enough. While most voters will see through it, there will be enough voters for whom this will effectively cancel out the impact of any impeachment proceedings against Trump - especially if Trump is in a pardoning mood.

7. Democrats Won’t Turn Out for Joe Biden Just as They Didn’t For Hillary Clinton

President Trump has asked not one, but two foreign governments to investigate an American citizen and all because he dares to challenge Trump for the office he holds. Yet for all of Trump’s illegality and impropriety, Joe Biden isn’t exactly getting much in the way of sympathy. After all, there more than dozen other Democrats who want to be the one who faces Trump next year. Meanwhile, Democratic Party activists have been lukewarm at best to Biden while displaying outright hostility at worst. Unlike President Obama, Biden garners very little enthusiasm among younger voters. During the Democratic debate in September, I witnessed a room full of NYU students openly boo the former VP.

Biden could still win the nomination, but a critical mass of Democrats have no enthusiasm for him and will sit on their hands as they did for Hillary Clinton in 2016. At this point, Elizabeth Warren has captured the hearts of most progressives and is now viewed as the frontrunner.

8. Donald Trump is a Liar, But Elizabeth Warren is a Phony

Whatever affection the Democratic base has for Warren, she has plenty of problems of her own. Her false claims of Native American identity continue to be her kryptonite. While none of her Democratic rivals have seen fit to challenge her claims, Trump will not be so hesitant. After all, it was Trump who goaded Warren to ill-advisedly take a DNA test to prove her Native American ancestry much to the anger and dismay of the Cherokee Nation.

Now comes her dubious claim that she was fired from a teaching job in New Jersey in the 1970’s due to her pregnancy when in fact she was encouraged to go to law school. It also doesn’t help that Warren can’t bring herself to admit that her Medicare for All proposal will result in tax increases on the middle class. All of which makes you wonder why Democrats keep nominating smug elitists who reside in Massachusetts.

President Trump might be a pathological liar, but Elizabeth Warren only need tell a lie or two to undo her credibility. But for all his fallacious behavior, Trump somehow comes off as genuine while Warren comes off as a phony. If Democrats nominate Warren then you can be sure Trump will call Warren “Pocahantas” and "Fauxcahontas" every chance he gets. Warren might have a plan for everything, but I don't think she has a plan for defeating Donald Trump.

9. Bernie Sanders’ Heart

Whatever one thinks of Bernie Sanders, there is nothing phony about him. He wears his heart on his sleeve. And his return to the campaign trail scarcely two weeks removed from a heart attack has made his campaign something of a feel good story. Endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib demonstrate that he still has a shot at the nomination.

Bernie’s heart might be in it, but there will remain the question if it could give out. President Trump is the epitome of the obesity epidemic in America despite at least one of his supporters insisting that he looks younger in office. With all that being said, Trump hasn’t suffered a heart attack and he would raise Bernie’s ticker in a heartbeat. And when Trump doesn’t tweet about Bernie’s heart, he’ll tweet about AOC, Omar and Tlaib at every opportunity and not without justification. While it was wrong to for Trump to encourage his supporters to “send them back”, he will strike a resonant chord when he raises the legitimate question of their anti-Semitic statements and support of BDS. It will certainly make the case that their endorsement of a Jewish candidate for the White House is little more than a smokescreen.

10. People Trust The Government and The Media Less Than They Trust Trump


While there is such a thing as a healthy skepticism of authority, this level of distrust in the government is the sort of thing which helped allowed Trump get to the White House and probably remain there even though he is now very much part of the government. If we had more trust in government, in our media and other public institutions, Trump’s candidacy would never have gotten off the ground floor at Trump Tower. And yet here we are nearly three years removed from Trump being elected our 45th President and a year away from signing up for four more years of tantrums, tweets and totalitarian praise.

Conclusion

For all of Trump’s foolishness, impulsiveness, meanness, prejudice and utter disregard for the law by using the White House for personal gain, most of us are doing well enough that we don’t care, don’t want to overturn the apple cart, don’t remember what they had for breakfast yesterday much less what Trump tweeted three months ago or are content to look the other way. Of course, this might result in a lot of sore necks and visits to the chiropractor because there is no reason to believe Trump’s foolishness, impulsiveness, meanness, prejudice and utter disregard for the law will cease.

For all his character deficiencies, Trump stays on message to hold his base. While many who voted for Trump might not worship him much less think of attending one of his rallies. They might even find what he says and tweets to be offensive. But people learn to tune out what he says as the alternatives aren’t viewed in any higher esteem. There are also low opinions of the institutions inside and outside of government charged with holding him to account. In which case, there could be as many voters inclined to believe the origins of the Mueller Report are corrupt than anything Trump has done where it concerns asking the Ukrainian President. It is a sad, depressing state of affairs. But so long as this depressing state of affairs persists then none of us should be surprised if a plurality of American voters gives Trump another mandate in a year from now.

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