1.
People Are Better Off Now Than They Were Four Years Ago
As
of September 2019, the national unemployment rate is 3.5%. As the Trump White
House boasts, it is the 19th consecutive month the unemployment rate has been at 4% or lower and represents the lowest monthly unemployment rate since May 1969. But unemployment has been trending downward for nearly the
entire 2010s. After reaching 10% in October 2009, during President Obama’s
first year in office, the unemployment rate had been cut in half by September
2015. When Trump entered office, the unemployment rate was 4.7%.
So
Trump inherited a good economic situation from Obama. Mind you, Obama is no
more responsible for the decline in unemployment which took place while he was
in office than Trump is. Chances are if voters had elected John McCain, Mitt
Romney and Hillary Clinton in successive presidential elections we would very
likely have the same level of low unemployment. But politicians being
politicians, they like taking credit for things with which they have little or
nothing to do. In Trump’s case, he takes bragging to a whole new level
characterizing the economy under his watch as “the greatest in the history of
the country” despite all evidence to the contrary.
In
Trump’s case, an argument can be made that his tariff policies on allies and
adversaries alike could put the U.S. economy into recession. It is estimated that Trump’s tariffs increase average costs per household between $500 to $1700 and lower annual G.D.P.in 2020 an estimated 0.3% to 1%. It might not seem
like a lot. But even with unemployment at 3.5%, the manufacturing index of 47.8 in September 2019 was at its lowest level since June 2009 when the country was
still in the midst of the Great Recession. The writing is on the wall. Just
not on the one Trump says he wants to build.
Notwithstanding
these warning signs, by the time the full impact of Trump’s tariffs are
realized it will be well after the election and Trump will be safe from the
voters. As long as a critical mass of voters are content with their lot in life
then they will see no reason to rock the boat even if it is beginning to take
on water.
2.
Trump’s Tweets Work
For
all of their vulgarity and balderdash, President Trump’s tweets work. They work because Trump tweets prolifically and repeats the same messages over and over again. Think “hoax”, “witch hunt”, “fake news” and targets like Hillary
Clinton, James Comey and Robert Mueller not to mention the present Democratic
field while praising his own efforts to no end. Tweet and retweet the same
message, no matter how false, and you can fool enough of the people to believe
it as the gospel truth.
Kamala
Harris only makes matters worse by demanding Twitter suspend Trump’s account. While Harris is correct to say that Trump’s words are irresponsible,
suspending his account would be equally irresponsible. Such a measure would
turn Trump into a martyr and have the effecting of mobilizing conservatives –
even those not inclined to support him. Then there are practical
considerations. Banning Trump from Twitter would not prevent him from
communicating by other means. When it comes to Trump’s tweets the answer isn’t
banning speech but better speech. Unfortunately, Democrats don’t seem to be
willing to offer anything better thus giving voters little reason to change
their minds.
3.
His Supporters Aren’t Abandoning Him
Trump’s
tweets are the foundation of his presidency. It’s like attending a Trump rally
without ever having to leave the comfort of your home. Not a single inch of
that “big, beautiful wall” along the southern border has been built and, if it
ever gets under way, Mexico won’t be paying for it.
You
would think Trump’s supporters would feel betrayed by the President. But
thought doesn’t enter into the equation. Accomplishments don’t matter. Wall or
no wall, Trump’s supporters aren’t abandoning him. They would run through a
wall for them and then rebuild it only to run through it again.
After
Trump received strong criticism for putting anti-racists and white supremacists
on the same moral plane after Charlottesville in August 2017, BBC journalist Katty Kay made the case why Trump supporters will never abandon him:
He
defies the normal metrics for success because his voters don't so much support
him for what he does as they adore him for what he's against.
Mr.
Trump is against the political establishment (the media, the Republican Party,
political grandees like the Bushes and the Clintons) and change (which
encompasses everything you had but fear you are losing) and he's against the world
(which has taken jobs and sent immigrants to take over America).
Peter
Wehner, a so-called “establishment Republican” who worked for President Reagan
and both Bushes, takes a slightly different view. Wehner believes there are
Trump supporters who realize how dangerous he is, but cannot bring themselves
to admit they are wrong. “To indict him is to indict themselves, and to indict
their own judgment, and that’s hard for any human being," Wehner wrote, "They will defend him
regardless of what happens, come hell or high water.”
Whether
Trump supporters are true believers or just unwilling to admit they were wrong,
they are standing by him. Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota political
science professor and founder of the blog Smart Politics notes, “Given
everything that has happened to his administration, what I think is very
telling, is [his base of support] has not moved more than a few inches. Here in
Minnesota it has also been pretty consistent; it was 46 when he was
inaugurated, and its 43 now. Some of his negatives have risen, but those who
support him have remained relatively stable.”
And
with stability comes re-election.
4.
People Have Short Memories
Despite
the stability in his support, President Trump has behaved in a manner which
suggests otherwise. He has said and done many things inconceivable for the
President of the United States much less a normal human being.
There
is Trump’s constant refrain that the media as “an enemy of the people”,
referring to black majority nations as “shithole countries”, his barbs at
Senator John McCain months after his death while casually accusing Mueller’s
investigators, FBI officials and various members of treason, a crime punishable
by imprisonment or death. But for many this is all water under the bridge.
How
many of you have already forgotten the video depicting Trump graphically executing his critics in the Democratic Party and the media? This wasn’t
Trump’s doing in particular, but it was shown in a room of his most fervent
supporters at his Doral resort in Miami. This would be the same Doral which
would have hosted next year’s G-7 Summit if not for overwhelming negative
public opinion.
Then
there are the lies. More than 12,000 from which to choose. Most of these
are the same lies – the wall is being built, the economy is the greatest
ever, he passed the largest tax cut ever, Russia didn’t interfere in the 2016
election, etc. Then there was the time he deployed a sharpie to claim that
Alabama was in the path of Hurricane Dorian and insisted that his lie was true.
This might be funny if it wasn't for Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross threatening the jobs of NOAA officials who contradicted Trump - by stating the facts. It's bad enough that Trump lies, but his Cabinet is demanding that civil servants aid and abet those lies or lose their livelihood. Who would want to live in that kind of America?
But
the barrage of balderdash and onslaught of insults is so voluminous it is hard
to keep up. One outrage can easily make one forget the hundred which came
before it. How many of you remember the beginning of 2019 when there was a partial shutdown of the federal
government for five weeks? This might as well have been five years ago.
If
not for the recent passing of Elijah Cummings, it would have been easy to
forget that the former Baltimore area Congressman was a target of racially charged tweets by Trump only three months ago. Tweets which characterized
Cummings’ district as "a disgusting, rat and rodent infested mess"
and that "no human being would want to live there.” Of course, many human
beings live in Maryland’s 7th District and most of them are
African-American. This is the sort of thing we ought to remember this when
entering the voting booth. But by the time November 2020 comes around, for most
people, Elijah Cummings will scarcely be a footnote in the news cycle.
Those
who support Trump will either dismiss his insults and lies as fake news or wear
it as a badge of honor. Voters who have fewer illusions about Trump, but
distrust politicians in general may be inclined to conclude that Trump is no
worse than anyone else. But as former world chess champion and Russian exile Gary Kasparov put it, “The point of modern propaganda isn't only to misinform
or push an agenda. It is to exhaust your critical thinking, to annihilate
truth.” If re-electing Trump doesn’t annihilate the truth, it will
collapse its foundation and thereby take decades to rebuild.
5.
Impeachment is Dead on Arrival
President
Trump brazenly called upon recently elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky to do him a favor and investigate Joe Biden. If he didn’t it would be
a shame if anything happened to their military aid. After initial denials, this
account of events was confirmed by White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney
(before he denied ever saying any such thing hours later) and by acting
Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, Jr. (who did not recant his account).
Trump has also called upon China to investigate Biden in exchange for the
easing of tariffs. Both of these are impeachable offenses.
While
public support for impeachment has increased, so long as the Senate is
controlled by Mitch McConnell impeachment is dead on arrival. The Republican
Senators who don’t worship at Trump’s altar are scared to death that he will
mock them on Twitter. And if they aren’t scared of Trump then they are scared of his supporters who claim impeachment is a coup. That it is a legitimate
constitutional process means absolutely nothing to them. It certainly means
nothing to the 30 Republican Congressmen who recently stormed a secure area of Congress to prevent a closed door impeachment hearing from proceeding. Trump
supporters claim the impeachment process will be undoing a legitimate election.
Even if one agrees Trump was legitimately elected in 2016 that doesn’t entitle
him to engage in impeachable behavior in 2019. But let us remember Trump
believes that being President entitles him to do “whatever the hell I want.”
6.
“Investigating The Investigators” is Only Get Started
And
what Trump wants to do is to turn the heat on the people who have investigated
him during the Mueller Report which he has long characterized as a hoax and a
witch hunt. What began as an administrative review of the origins of the
Mueller Report by Attorney General William Barr in May has now turned into a criminal investigation led by U.S. attorney John Durham. This far more
closely resembles a hoax and a witch hunt than the Mueller Report which
actually resulted in a jail sentence for former Trump campaign manager Paul
Manafort and a pending trial for longtime Trump advisor Roger Stone.
Notwithstanding
Durham’s stellar reputation as a prosecutor, pressure might be brought to bear
from the White House against Durham to lay charges given how Trump expects “bad things” to come of the inquiry. Considering how Trump has railed against the FBI by accusing it of treason, it would not shock me to see indictments
against the likes of longtime Trump bogeymen Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Andrew
McCabe and perhaps even against former FBI Director James Comey and Mueller
himself.
Of
course, any indictments which might be brought will have no legal merit
whatsoever. There is only treason against the United States, not the President
of the United States never mind a presidential candidate. But such indictments
would have the effect of intimidating those who dare hold Trump to scrutiny,
prevent further inquiry and accelerate this country’s descent into
authoritarianism.
Even
if no indictments are ever brought so long as the DOJ investigation against the
Mueller Report is open, it will be grist for Trump’s mill during the election
campaign and his supporters won’t be able to get enough. While most voters will
see through it, there will be enough voters for whom this will effectively
cancel out the impact of any impeachment proceedings against Trump - especially if Trump is in a pardoning mood.
7.
Democrats Won’t Turn Out for Joe Biden Just as They Didn’t For Hillary
Clinton
President Trump has asked not one, but two foreign governments to
investigate an American citizen and all because he dares to challenge Trump for the office he holds. Yet for all of Trump’s illegality and impropriety,
Joe Biden isn’t exactly getting much in the way of sympathy. After all, there
more than dozen other Democrats who want to be the one who faces Trump next
year. Meanwhile, Democratic Party activists have been lukewarm at best to Biden
while displaying outright hostility at worst. Unlike President Obama, Biden garners very little enthusiasm among younger voters. During the Democratic
debate in September, I witnessed a room full of NYU students openly boo the former VP.
Biden
could still win the nomination, but a critical mass of Democrats have no
enthusiasm for him and will sit on their hands as they did for Hillary Clinton
in 2016. At this point, Elizabeth Warren has captured the hearts of most
progressives and is now viewed as the frontrunner.
8.
Donald Trump is a Liar, But Elizabeth Warren is a Phony
Whatever
affection the Democratic base has for Warren, she has plenty of problems of her
own. Her false claims of Native American identity continue to be her kryptonite. While none of her Democratic rivals have seen fit to challenge
her claims, Trump will not be so hesitant. After all, it was Trump who goaded
Warren to ill-advisedly take a DNA test to prove her Native American ancestry
much to the anger and dismay of the Cherokee Nation.
Now
comes her dubious claim that she was fired from a teaching job in New Jersey in the 1970’s due to her pregnancy when in fact she was encouraged to go to law
school. It also doesn’t help that Warren can’t bring herself to admit that
her Medicare for All proposal will result in tax increases on the middle class.
All of which makes you wonder why Democrats keep nominating smug elitists who
reside in Massachusetts.
President
Trump might be a pathological liar, but Elizabeth Warren only need tell a lie
or two to undo her credibility. But for all his fallacious behavior, Trump
somehow comes off as genuine while Warren comes off as a phony. If Democrats
nominate Warren then you can be sure Trump will call Warren “Pocahantas” and "Fauxcahontas" every
chance he gets. Warren might have a plan for everything, but I don't think she has a plan for defeating Donald Trump.
9.
Bernie Sanders’ Heart
Whatever
one thinks of Bernie Sanders, there is nothing phony about him. He wears his
heart on his sleeve. And his return to the campaign trail scarcely two weeks
removed from a heart attack has made his campaign something of a feel good
story. Endorsements from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib
demonstrate that he still has a shot at the nomination.
Bernie’s
heart might be in it, but there will remain the question if it could give out.
President Trump is the epitome of the obesity epidemic in America despite at least one of his supporters insisting that he looks younger in office.
With all that being said, Trump hasn’t suffered a heart attack and he
would raise Bernie’s ticker in a heartbeat. And when Trump doesn’t tweet
about Bernie’s heart, he’ll tweet about AOC, Omar and Tlaib at every
opportunity and not without justification. While it was wrong to for Trump to
encourage his supporters to “send them back”, he will strike a resonant chord
when he raises the legitimate question of their anti-Semitic statements and
support of BDS. It will certainly make the case that their endorsement of a
Jewish candidate for the White House is little more than a smokescreen.
10.
People Trust The Government and The Media Less Than They Trust Trump
As
of this writing, President Trump has an overall disapproval rating of 54.4%. You would think this screams, “One Term President!!!” The problem is that Americans have less trust our institutions less than they trust President Trump including the media. At least a third of Americans agree with Trump’s oft-repeated view that the media is an enemy of the American people. Only 17% of Americans trust the government.
While
there is such a thing as a healthy skepticism of authority, this level of
distrust in the government is the sort of thing which helped allowed Trump get
to the White House and probably remain there even though he is now very much
part of the government. If we had more trust in government, in our media and
other public institutions, Trump’s candidacy would never have gotten off the
ground floor at Trump Tower. And yet here we are nearly three years removed
from Trump being elected our 45th President and a year away from
signing up for four more years of tantrums, tweets and totalitarian praise.
Conclusion
For
all of Trump’s foolishness, impulsiveness, meanness, prejudice and utter
disregard for the law by using the White House for personal gain, most of us
are doing well enough that we don’t care, don’t want to overturn the apple
cart, don’t remember what they had for breakfast yesterday much less what Trump
tweeted three months ago or are content to look the other way. Of course, this
might result in a lot of sore necks and visits to the chiropractor because
there is no reason to believe Trump’s foolishness, impulsiveness, meanness,
prejudice and utter disregard for the law will cease.
For
all his character deficiencies, Trump stays on message to hold his base. While
many who voted for Trump might not worship him much less think of attending one
of his rallies. They might even find what he says and tweets to be offensive.
But people learn to tune out what he says as the alternatives aren’t viewed in
any higher esteem. There are also low opinions of the institutions inside and
outside of government charged with holding him to account. In which case, there
could be as many voters inclined to believe the origins of the Mueller Report
are corrupt than anything Trump has done where it concerns asking the Ukrainian
President. It is a sad, depressing state of affairs. But so long as this
depressing state of affairs persists then none of us should be surprised if a
plurality of American voters gives Trump another mandate in a year from now.
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