Sunday, July 7, 2019

MLB Notes for All-Star Break: Nats Claw Way to NL Wild Card

Although more than 81 games have passed we have reached the halfway point of the 2019 MLB season with the All-Star Game to take place in Cleveland on Tuesday night.

One team that probably wishes there wasn't a pause in the action is the Washington Nationals. This wasn't the case right before Memorial Day. On May 23rd, the Nats had just lost their fifth straight game and 7 of their last 10 games and were only 1.5 games ahead of the last place Miami Marlins. They were 10 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, 8.5 games off the NL Wild Card with The Washington Post's Thomas Boswell making the case that Dave Martinez shouldn't be managing the team.

Since May 23rd, the Nats have gone 28-11 and have overtaken the Phillies in the NL East standings. Although the Nats are six games back of the division leading Atlanta Braves, they are now atop the NL Wild Card standings - a half game ahead of the Phillies. Although the Phillies have gone 18-22 over this same period and fallen out of the first place they own the other NL Wild Card berth at the midway point. Needless to say, a Nationals-Phillies NL Wild Card match up would be mammoth especially if the Nats overcome the Phillies and demonstrate they have moved on without Bryce Harper. Anthony Rendon has become a NL MVP candidate, Juan Soto has avoided the sophomore jinx, Max Scherzer is striking out 10 batters a game - black eye or no black eye and their bullpen has sorted out most of its issues.

Yet let us not forget the Braves who have gone 26-14 since May 23rd. Actually, the Braves have been on a roll since May 15th when rookie sensation Austin Riley made his debut. They were a .500 team before Riley made his debut and have gone 33-16 since his call up. Riley might not win NL Rookie of the Year, but he will likely play baseball in October unlike Pete Alonso.

While Alonso might have 30 home runs, he and NL batting leader Jeff McNeil are the only good things about the New York Mets who go into the break 13.5 games back of the Braves. It's never a good sign when the team's GM is throwing chairs and its manager and players are swearing at newspaper reporters. Of course, the Marlins have the worst record in the NL, but this was expected. It was not expected that the Mets would be out of contention. The Mets are the biggest disappointment not only in the NL, but in all of MLB.

At this point, the Mets wish they were in the NL Central. They'd be only 7 games back of the Chicago Cubs. At the end of June, the gap between first and last was 5.5 games. It is now 4.5 games. The Cubs have a half game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers with the St. Louis Cardinals two games out, the Pittsburgh Pirates 2.5 games back with the last place Cincinnati Reds only 4.5 games behind the Cubs. The Reds could easily be leading the NL Central by the end of July.

There won't any such sweeping changes in the NL West. Although the Los Angeles Dodgers finished the half with three straight losses (their longest losing streak since they dropped six in a row in mid-April), they are 13.5 games ahead of the second place Arizona Diamondbacks, 14 ahead of the .500 San Diego Padres and 14.5 ahead of the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies limp into the second half having lost six in a row and 7 of their last 10 games. Colorado appeared to have turned the corner. After beginning the season 3-12, the Rockies managed to climb over .500 by Memorial Day Weekend only to drop under .500 as they are winless thus far in July. The last place San Francisco Giants have won 7 of their last 10 games and are now 5.5 games back of the second NL Wild Card berth. Could the Giants be the NL's sleeper team in the second half?

Outside of D.C., the happiest fans in MLB can probably be found in Cleveland. Aside from hosting the All-Star Game for the first time since 1997, the Indians go into the second half having won six games in a row and 8 of their last 10 games. Since the end of June, the Indians have gone from being 8 games back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central to only five games back. If the season ended now, the Tribe would earn an AL Wild Card berth and face off against the Tampa Bay Rays. At the end of May, the Indians were 28-29, tied with the Chicago White Sox and 10.5 games back of the Twins. Since that time the Tribe are 20-9. The Indians might not be content with an AL Wild Card berth and certainly have a shot at overtaking the Twins. As for the Chisox, they might not reach the post-season in 2019, but they have a shot of being over .500 for the first time since 2012. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals might soon be selling off parts.

The New York Yankees end the first half with the best record in the AL and a 6.5 game lead in the AL East over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have scuffled of late having gone 11-15 since June 10th when they had a half game lead on the Yankees. But the Rays still have the top berth in the AL Wild Card race. Will the Rays be able to hold off the Boston Red Sox? While the Bosox are 9 games back of the Yankees they are only 2 games back of the Rays in the AL Wild Card race. The Red Sox, however, are not the only team in the AL Wild Card hunt. More on that in a moment. As with the Tigers and Royals, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will likely be selling their wares at the trade deadline.

The Houston Astros will enter the second half with a 7.5 game lead over the Oakland A's in the AL West. The A's are only 1.5 games back of the Cleveland Indians for the second AL Wild Card berth. The Texas Rangers who began July with the second berth have slipped back but are only three games back and far from out of it. The Los Angeles Angels, fresh off the death of pitcher Tyler Skaggs earlier this month and devastated by today's home plate collision with Jonathan Lucroy, will be treading water for the rest of the season even with Mike Trout in the middle of the lineup. Only the Seattle Mariners are keeping the Angels from being at the bottom of the heap.

Will the Mets fire Mickey Callaway? Does anyone want to win the NL Central? Will anyone give the Dodgers are run for their money in the NL West? Will the Indians overtake the Twins in the AL Central? Can the Rays keep hold of their AL Wild Card berth? Or will the A's overtake them to earn their second straight AL Wild Card match up? I will chime in after the July 31st trade deadline.




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