Monday, December 3, 2018

Will France's Yellow Vest Riots Lead To The Rise of Le Pen?

For several weeks now, France has been the scene of riots carried out by the so-called Yellow Vest movement which came into being following an increase in fuel taxes by French President Emmanuel Macron. The riots have resulted in three deaths, hundreds injured and millions of Euros in damage to both private and public property including the Arc du Triomphe.


Needless to say this is the biggest crisis faced by Macron let alone his predecessors over the past half century. It is very likely that Macron will soon impose emergency rule. But even if he does it is unlikely to the ease the hatred towards him especially if he remains firm in his policies and a critical mass of France is unable to make ends meet from week to week.


The Yellow Vests are leaderless and eschew politicians - for now. Someone will exploit their anger for their own ends and Marine Le Pen of the National Front would be in the best position to organize such exploitation. At the moment, she is calling for the dissolution of the National Assembly and for new parliamentary elections. Undoubtedly, the National Front would do very well in these elections (as would the Communists led by Jean-Luc Melanchon). With every passing election, the National Front gains respectability and if respectable politicians like Macron aren't up for the job it is only a matter of time before they turn to Madame Le Pen. And when the yellow vests turn to her they will soon realize she can no more meet their needs that Macron or anyone else before him. But unlike Macron or anyone else before him, her movement was born in violence and will not hesitate to violent means to maintain power even if it means destroying the very people who bestowed power upon them in the first place.


The next French election doesn't take place until 2022 and if Macron can act now the riots of late 2018 will be a distant memory. Macron has time on his side, but not very much.

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