Monday, January 13, 2025

Trump's Greenland Gambit is About Weakening NATO & Strengthening Russia

President-elect Donald Trump has been talking a great deal about the U.S. wresting control of Greenland. 

Some like Connecticut Democratic Senator Chris Murphy see Trump's talk about Greenland as well as calling Canada the 51st state and reclaiming the Panama Canal as "a distraction".

Well, Denmark certainly isn't viewing Trump's talk as a distraction which has included taking the island by force. Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen expressed his desire to make nice with the incoming Trump Administration:

We agree that the Americans have certain concerns about the security situation in the Arctic, which we share and therefore in close cooperation with Greenland, we are ready to continue talks with the incoming U.S. president, in order to ensure legitimate American interests.

Trump has not been sworn back into the White House and yet Denmark is ready indulge him on Greenland. I wish the Danish government had taken a page out of U.S. Brigadier General Anthony McAuliffe and told him, "NUTS!" 

Unfortunately, the reality is that Denmark cannot defend Greenland without U.S. security guarantees via NATO. And as we all know Trump has nothing but contempt for NATO. Indeed, the incoming President of the United States last week publicly sympathized with Russian opposition to Ukraine joining NATO

If the U.S. were to purchase Greenland from Denmark it would have the effect of a) weakening NATO and b) strengthening Russia. After all, Russia has its own claims in the Arctic namely the Lomonosov Ridge which is also claimed by Denmark as an extension of Greenland as well as by Canada. A pro-Putin Trump Administration is more likely to be sympathetic to claims by Russia than Canada and Denmark. 

While Russian diplomats have advised Trump against his ambitions in GreenlandRussian state TV floated the idea of Russia and the U.S. sharing Greenland and is popular amongst the Russian commentariat. So, it could go one way or the other. Putin and Trump divvying up Greenland might soften the blow of the failure to conquer Ukraine. 

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