The Good, The Bad & The Ugly of the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar was announced today.

The framework is similar to what was proposed in May 2024 with the ceasefire working in three stages. The first phase which is due to begin on January 19th would see a third of the hostages released in exchange for aid to Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners over a six-week period. The second phase will see additional hostages released in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egyptian border. The third and final phase will be a permanent ceasefire though what that would look like is anyone's guess. 

So here is the good, the bad and the ugly.

The good part is that Israel is bringing home the hostages. Hopefully most of these hostages will still be alive. Those who are not can be properly laid to rest.

The bad part is that the hostages won't be released all at once. When the American hostages were released from Tehran that was it. There is still plenty which can go wrong as this deal is being implemented. In five days, Donald Trump returns to the White House and could undo all the work the Biden Administration has spent months laying down the groundwork to reach an agreement. And let us please not forget that Hamas is and always has been a terrorist organization. 

Which brings me to the ugly part. Hamas can rebuild and perpetuate more October 7th attacks. Money and materials intended for humanitarian aid will rebuild tunnels and smuggle arms while many of the Palestinian prisoners to be released will be part of the next wave of terrorists whose sole mission in life is to kill Jews in the hope of wiping Israel off the face of the Earth. The more often it happens the more the world will sympathize with Hamas and want Israel to disappear. Frankly, if the Trump Administration comes to view Hamas as the strong horse and Israel as the weak horse then they will change horses in midstream. 

The sad part is this is probably the best deal which could have been made given the parties involved. All of which means that any further deals of this nature to be made years down the road will very likely be much, much worse.