Exactly six months from today, Americans will decide whether to stick with President Trump or to take a chance on Joe Biden.
As we all now know a lot can happen in six months, never mind six weeks.
Indeed, six months ago, I outlined 10 depressing reasons why Trump would be re-elected.
While some of the reasons still hold true the top reason no longer does. Because of COVID-19, Americans are no longer better off now than they were four years ago.
At the time I wrote the piece the national unemployment rate was 3.5%. Over the past six weeks, more than 30 million Americans have made unemployment claims (myself among them). Nearly 4 million Americans made jobless claims last week alone.
When the national unemployment figures are released this coming Friday it is not inconceivable that the rate will be somewhere between 15%-20% - unless the Trump Administration fudges the numbers in an obvious way. But if they do that they will only make matters worse. Because the number of jobless claims won't stop at 30 million.
Of course, Trump supporters like those carrying guns in Michigan and swastikas in Illinois, will claim the cure is worse than the disease and will want America to go back to work now. The problem with that is more than 1.1 million Americans have been afflicted with COVID-19 with more than 67,000 Americans having succumbed to the virus. By this time a week from now the death toll will probably top 75,000. By the end of May, the death toll could top 100,000. It is also possible that come Memorial Day that more Americans will have died of COVID-19 than were killed during WWI.
I shudder to think where things could be by November when a second wave of COVID-19 is expected to hit. One can only hope people will be able to vote by mail despite opposition from the Trump Administration.
President Trump plays for keeps and will hold onto power by hook or by crook. As such I cannot discount the possibility that he will prevail. But should he see the writing on the wall I would not be surprised if he tried to delay the election under the guise of public health.
However, if our institutions are still strong enough to withstand Trump's authoritarian tendencies and if conditions remain bleak in six months from now, not only do I believe Joe Biden will win but will win by a landslide.
Which means not only would Biden win back Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but win back Ohio and Florida. It would also mean Biden would win in states where Democrats haven't won in a quarter century or more - Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, West Virginia, Arizona. It would be like Biden's Super Tuesday win only on a much grander scale. If Biden managed to carry Texas it would be even more shocking than his Super Tuesday win in Massachusetts which left Elizabeth Warren finishing a distant third.
This might sound grandiose, but that is the point. When Trump took his oath of office he spoke of ending American Carnage. Well, right now we are in the thick of American Carnage with no end in sight. President Trump didn't cause COVID-19, but his response certainly made it much worse. Aside from disregarding advice on how handle pandemics from both the Bush and Obama Administrations, outright lies about our testing capacity and claims of total authority without taking any responsibility, Trump does not inspire confidence when he boasts of his ratings, asks Americans what they have to lose by taking unproven treatments and then claiming sarcasm when called out for doing so as thousands of Americans die every week.
Lest we forget Trump's constant complaints about the media, his political adversaries and now even chiding President Bush for not coming to his defense during impeachment proceedings after Bush called for Americans to come together to overcome COVID-19 yesterday. These complaints will only intensify over the next six months and those Americans who haven't already died of COVID-19 will become sick of Trump and will have had enough.
If Joe Biden wins the 2020 election by a landslide it won't be because voters have any great affection for him (outside of the African-American community) but rather because of Trump's insufferable behavior in the face of so much suffering. For all of Biden's shortcomings, he does know what it is to suffer. After all, this is a man who lost his first wife and infant child in an automobile accident and later one of his sons to cancer. Those are burdens that Biden has carried for decades and will do so for the rest of his life.
At a time when Americans are losing their jobs, their health and their loved ones they seek comfort and reassurance. President Trump is simply incapable of providing comfort and reassurance when Americans need it the most. Unless Trump is somehow right to say that COVID-19 will suddenly disappear and everything goes back to normal, a majority of Americans are going to want a President who provides comfort and reassurance in times of trouble. If Americans are choosing between Trump and Biden on that basis then they will decisively reject Trump in favor of Biden six months from today.
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