(YouTube screenshot: From left to right: Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, Canadian Prime Minister & Liberal Party leader Mark Carney, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh & Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet)
Earlier this evening, I watched the Canadian election English language debate which aired and was streamed by Global TV and moderated by veteran TV journalist Steve Paikin.
Last night, the French language debate took place. As I am not conversant in French, I did not watch that debate. I was also more interested in watching a debate that would be viewed by a more substantial number of Canadians.
Unlike U.S. presidential debates which feature the Democratic and Republican candidates, this debate featured four leaders - Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet.
Neither Singh nor Blanchet will become Canada's next Prime Minister. However, both men could determine who the next Prime Minister is in the event of a minority government which has been the result of the previous two federal elections.
A year ago, when Justin Trudeau was still in office, the next Canadian election was Pierre Poilievre's to lose. He was a Prime Minister in waiting.
But with the return of Donald Trump to the White House his tariff regime against Canada and 51st state annexation rhetoric accompanied by Trudeau's resignation and Carney's ascension, the Liberals have the wind at their back.
The task for Poilievre was to regain his mojo while the task for Carney was not to shit the bed.
With that, let me evaluate the leaders on how I perceived their performance as they appeared on stage from left to right.
Pierre Poilievre - I think Conservatives will be reasonably happy with his performance. If you like Poilievre for "owning the Libs" then you got to have your red meat and chocolate ice cream today. However, for Canadians who had doubts about Poilievre, then I'm not sure he overcame them. Poilievre alternated between being a pit bull and trying to be empathetic. He is a natural with the former and a phony with the latter.
Poilievre frequently spoke of the lost Liberal decade despite the fact that Carney has been in office scarcely a month. He kept his commentary about Trump to a minimum so as not to risk alienating his conservative base. The only time Poilievre asserted independence of the U.S. was in his claim of support to Ukraine. However, Carney reminded voters that Poilievre had voted against aid to Ukraine.
Frankly, Poilievre was grandstanding and generally acting like a prick. When Poilievre was given an opportunity to ask Carney about his time as Justin Trudeau's economic adviser, Poilievre wouldn't let him answer the question as he clearly wasn't interested his answer. When Carney got to ask Poilievre about why he wouldn't get a security clearance, he gave a bizarre answer about not wanting to be prosecuted by the Trudeau government by speaking freely about Chinese interference in Canadian elections. To which, Carney replied that Singh and Blanchet had spoken out against Chinese interference in Canadian elections and they had not been subject to prosecution. Carney then added that China wasn't the only country that had interfered in Canadian elections, a point Poilievre reluctantly conceded.
Don't get me wrong. Large numbers of Canadian will go to Poilievre's rallies. But unless Poilievre turns out to be Donald Trump, it won't translate into votes. And Trump is the last thing Poilievre wants to be in front a Canadian electorate which despises the President. However, try as he might, Poilievre cannot escape Trump's bigly shadow.
Mark Carney - This is the Prime Minister's first election campaign - ever. While not being a seasoned politician could be an asset, it could also be a liability especially in a debate. I did fear that Carney could be vulnerable from attacks from Poilievre. There were times when Carney was on the defensive and appeared exasperated and repeatedly said, "Let me finish." But this might have helped him as was the case when Poilievre made it clear he had no intention of letting Carney answer the question he had himself posed. Singh and Blanchet were no better. Most notably, unlike Poilievre, Singh and Blanchet, Carney never interrupted his opponents and went out of his way to respect Paikin's time constraints. I have never seen a candidate do that before.
On a personal note, Carney took it upon himself to raise the issue of anti-Semitism of his own accord particularly concerning the harassment and threats made against Jews going to our schools and synagogues and promised legislation to harshly punish those impede people from coming and going freely to their houses of worship. While it remains to be seen if Carney can deliver, I appreciate the fact that he brought it up without any prompting him.
As stated earlier, all Carney had to do was not shit the bed and he more than cleared that hurdle.
Jagmeet Singh - This is Singh's third election as NDP leader and most likely his last. Since Carney replaced Trudeau as Liberal Party leader, the NDP's polling numbers have cratered. As of this writing, the NDP is projected to win 8 seats which would result in losing party status in the House of Commons.
Not only is this bad news for Singh and the NDP, but it is bad news for the Poilievre and the Tories. In order for the Conservatives to form a government, they need a strong NDP vote to weaken the Liberals.
For his part, Singh was very aggressive but in such a way that he was fighting for his political life and that of his party. Attacking Carney and Poilievre in nearly equal measure, Singh came dangerously close to being almost as obnoxious as Poilievre with his frequent interjections and interruptions. He simply did not help his cause and, in so doing, did not help the Tories either.
On a personal note, as some of you know I was a card-carrying member of the NDP as a teenager and into early adulthood. Of course, I would jettison left-wing politics after 9/11 and soon after began identifying myself as a conservative. The emergence of Trump and the spread of COVID resulted in a leftward tilt. But I can never identify as left-wing or as a socialist because of anti-Israel sentiment. When Singh claimed Israel is guilty of genocide during the debate, it reminded me of how far removed I am from the NDP. For some things, I can never go back.
Yves François-Blanchet - Given that his party only runs in Quebec and Blanchet's English isn't that good, he spoke less than the other leaders - a fact he was not happy about. When Blanchet did speak and was understood, his tone was pompous particularly towards Carney as Carney tried to answer Blanchet's question about his finances. I'm not saying that Blanchet doesn't have a legitimate question. But like Poilievre, he didn't want to hear Carney's answer.
Blanchet made a point of saying he wasn't interested in being Prime Minister. But he does want to be a power broker. In which case, the Bloc might very well determine who becomes the next Prime Minister and, given his rhetoric, I could see Blanchet propping up Poilievre and bringing the Tories to power.
Conclusion - I don't think this debate will move the needle much, as the kids like to say. As mentioned a moment ago, if Poilievre does gain some momentum after the debate, I do see the possibility of a Tory minority government backed by the separatist Bloc. But this would need to be accompanied by a NDP rebound and I don't see this happening.
Above all else, President Trump remains a clear and present danger to not only the Canadian economy but to Canada's future existence as a country. Pierre Poilievre simply isn't prepared to address this clear and present danger. He prefers to focus on the 10 years behind us instead of the 4 years ahead. If the mood of the Canadian electorate is focused on that future, then Mark Carney could win a majority government of 200 plus seats, a total the Trudeaus, Jean Chretien, MacKenzie King and even Wilfrid Laurier could not dare to dream.
But we shall see in 11 days from now.
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