Buyer Beware on Nolan Arenado

Less than a year ago, Nolan Arenado signed a contract extension with the Colorado Rockies through 2025 worth $260 million. The Rockies had earned back to back NL Wild Card berths and Arenado was a central figure in those campaigns finishing fourth and third in NL MVP balloting in 2017 and 2018.


But in 2019, the Rockies tumbled to a 71-91 record finishing 35 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. Arenado remained outstanding with a career high .315 batting average along with 41 HR and 118 RBI, his fifth consecutive NL All-Star Team selection and seventh straight Gold Glove. Had the Rockies been better Arenado would have finished higher than 6th in NL MVP balloting.


With the Rockies now appearing to be headed towards rebuilding and six years remaining on his contract, Arenado might soon departing Denver's light air. Possible destinations for Arenado include St. Louis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New York (both in The Bronx and Queens) the Cubs (even with Kris Bryant remaining with the club in 2020) and the Rangers.


But any of these buyers should beware where it concerns Arenado's offense. In each of the last five seasons, Arenado has more than 35 HR and has thrice topped 40 HR and has had five straight 100 plus RBI seasons. Don't expect Arenado to replicate these figures for his new team. Arenado has played exactly 1,031 games (515 at Coors Field and 516 away from Coors). The splits are dramatic. On Blake Street, Arenado is a career .324 hitter with 129 HR and 446 RBI. Outside the Rocky Mountain State, Arenado is a career .265 hitter with 98 HR and 288 RBI. Arenado, who will turn 29 in April, is still an exceptional third baseman who has thrice won the Plantinum Glove as the best defender in MLB. He can help his new team win games, but if they think he can belt 40 HRs and drive in 130 runs a season then they are setting up themselves and Arenado for failure.


Arenado is hardly the only Rockie whose offensive output was dramatically better in Denver. Todd Helton, who spent his entire 17-year big league career with the Rockies, was a lifetime .345 hitter at Coors Field with an astounding OBP of .441 along with 227 HR and 859 RBI. If Helton had done this on the road, he would already be in Cooperstown. But away from Coors Helton hit .287 with 142 HR and 547 RBI. Not bad, but not enough for a Hall of Fame speech - at least not yet.


There's a very good chance Nolan Arenado will be playing for a new team in 2020. The new team, whoever it might be, will get a very good player but should be aware that won't get what Nolan Arenado delivered in Colorado.