If Trudeau is Re-Elected Scheer Can Thank Doug Ford

Two months ago, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party was trailing the Tories by double digits. But after having a steady lead in the polls since the SNC-Lavalin scandal broke in February, Trudeau's Liberals appeared to have recovered and have taken the lead in several recently released polls including a Nanos poll which gives the Grits a 4.2% lead over the Tories (34.6% to 30.4%).

If the Liberals manage to win re-election this October then Tory leader Andrew Scheer can thank his provincial Tory counterpart in Ontario - Premier Doug Ford. According to a poll commissioned by the Toronto Star last month, more than half of Ontarians (54%) are less likely to vote for the Tories this October because of Ford's policies.

Elected in June 2018 ending 15 years of Liberal rule under Dalton McGuinty and later Kathleen Wynne, the Tory government's popularity has been in free fall since introducing their first budget back in April. Although government spending is at record levels, the Tories have seen fit to cut programs affecting the poor and most vulnerable members of society such as the transition child benefit, violence against women shelters, environmental programs, after school programs as well as the centralization of health care programs.

It also hasn't helped matters that Premier Ford's chief of staff had to resign due to patronage appointments going to his friends, there's been a cabinet shuffle after a year in office and one of his cabinet ministers uttered profanities at the owner of the Ottawa Senators at a Rolling Stones concert. This same minister had to apologize back in February for threatening the funding of the Ontario Association for Behavior Analysis for refusing to publicly backed proposed changes to the province's programs for autistic children.

The key to ousting Trudeau's Liberals is in Ontario. As ham handed as the Trudeau government has been regarding SNC-Lavalin, voters in Ontario are not going to abandon Trudeau if they think Scheer  will govern the way Ford has during his first year in office. Needless to say, Trudeau will move heaven and earth to make people believe that Scheer and Ford are blood brothers.

At this point, SNC-Lavalin is old news while the hijinks at Queens' Park is brand new. If Scheer spends the election campaign having to talk about Ford instead of Trudeau then the federal Tories will grab defeat from the jaws of victory. For his own political future, Scheer is going to have distance himself from Ford. Unless there are new developments in SNC-Lavalin or another new Trudeau scandal emerges, Scheer's hopes for a one term Liberal government might become sheer fantasy.