Yesterday, Congresswoman Elise Stefanik announced her bid to seek the GOP nomination in next year's gubernatorial race in New York.
Of course, there is no guarantee she would get the blessing of the party although methinks President Trump is more likely than not to support her. However, let us remember that Trump nominated Stefanik to be his UN Ambassador only to pull the rug out from under her. The position subsequently went to Stefanik's former GOP congressional colleague Mike Waltz who had been forced to resign as National Security Adviser earlier in the year due to Signalgate.
Yet I think it is more likely than not that Trump would endorse Stefanik. Should Stefanik oust Democrat Kathy Hochul as Governor she could help Trump carry out any schemes he might conjure up against New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani. While sending the National Guard into NYC would be wrong, I must admit there is a part of me which wouldn't mind Stefanik help give Mamdani a swift kick in the ass.
With that said, I do have considerable reservations regarding Stefanik. While I have lauded Stefanik for exposing campus anti-Semitism to a national audience, I am deeply troubled about her echoing Trump in likening those who were convicted of crimes committed on January 6th as "hostages", Those who were responsible for criminal acts on January 6, 2021 were no danger of being starved, raped or murdered unlike those who were taken into captivity by Hamas on October 7th. I consider such statements unconscionable.
Assuming Stefanik gets her party's nomination and Trump doesn't undermine her, there remains the question of whether she can defeat Governor Hochul. This depends on one question. Who will New Yorkers hate more at this time a year from now - Mayor Mamdani or President Trump? If it is the former, then she can win. If it is the latter, then she will lose.
Let's keep in mind that across the Hudson, Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill was considered a less than ideal gubernatorial candidate and was called "the Kamala Harris of New Jersey." Yet Sherrill won her race by more than 13 points. Well, she ran aggressively against Trump and even Trump ceded the ongoing government shutdown benefited Sherrill.
In which case one can expect Hochul to campaign aggressively against Trump and paint Stefanik as an acolyte of Trump which she is. There is certainly the possibility of Mamdani doing more damage than Trump in the next year should there be anti-Semitic pogroms accompanied by capital leaving NYC and possibly the state altogether. Yet there is also a good chance that Trump's response to any catastrophe under Mamdani's watch will only make matters worse. In which case, I think the odds would seem to favor Hochul prevailing against Stefanik.
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