Israel Celebrates 75th Anniversary; Will It Reach Its Centennial?

Israel has spent the past day commemorating its 75th anniversary. 

While Israel has a great deal to celebrate as the world's only Jewish state, I cannot help but wonder if Israel will reach its centennial in 2048. 

Of course, Israel has been under constant external threat from the day of its independence when it was attacked by 6 Arab armies. It remains under external threat from Iran both directly through the prospect of a nuclear and indirectly through Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians. Then there is the ongoing disdain by the United Nations. Notwithstanding improved relations with its Arab neighbors in recent years via the Abraham Accords (the only significant foreign policy accomplishment during the Trump Administration), recent overtures between Saudi Arabia and Iran are a worrying development. 

Yet for all of the external threats Israel faces and will continue to face, the greatest danger to the Jewish homeland comes from within. Prime Minister Netanyahu has been steering the country towards authoritarianism through his efforts to strip the judiciary of its independence. Thus far Israeli civil society has been preventing him from carrying out this agenda. The fact there is a broad opposition to these measures across the ideological spectrum speaks well of democratic discourse in Israel.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu is determined to embrace the kind of nationalism on display in Hungary and in India which has the effect of stifling civil society and its ability to peaceably dissent. Even if Bibi does not succeed perhaps his successor will especially if it is the likes of Itamar Ben-Gvir or some other demagogue. And in so doing will play right into the hands of anti-Semites abroad on both the Left and the Right. 

Of course, I am trying to imagine Israel's future in 25-years from now. It is difficult enough to predict Israel's future in a quarter of a year from now never mind a quarter of a century. In three months from now, it is entirely possible that Netanyahu's right-wing coalition could collapse, and Israel could hold its sixth election since 2019. In which case, Israel might more closely resemble 1980's Italy than 2020's style authoritarianism. Nevertheless, Israel's economic, medical and technical achievements of the past 75 years cannot be taken for granted if it is overshadowed and overcome by a sudden event which leads to permanent political instability.