At the outset of the 2019 MLB season, I predicted the Minnesota Twins would win the AL Central and also win the AL pennant.
At the end of April, the Twins were 17-10 and led the Cleveland Indians, the winner of the last three AL Central titles, by 1.5 games. One month later, the Twins lead both the Tribe and the Chicago White Sox by 10.5 games. The Twins went 21-7 in the month of May. They have done it primarily with the long ball leading the AL with 106 home runs. Four of their players - C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are in double digits in home runs. The Twins also have three 7-game winners in Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Martin Perez.
Meanwhile, the Indians end May a game under .500. The Tribe misses their ace Corey Kluber while they are at near the bottom of nearly all offensive categories. The Chisox have an identical record to the Tribe, but they are on cloud nine. They end May having won five in a row and 7 out of their last 10 games. At 7-1 with a 2.85 ERA, Lucas Giolito is making a case to start the All-Star Game while Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada are on their way to having career years with Jose Abreu enjoying a resurgence. Don't be surprised if the White Sox compete for a AL Wild Card berth.
The same cannot be said of the Detroit Tigers who after hovering around .500 in March/April went 9-18 in May with a 9-game losing streak. Miguel Cabrera isn't the player he once was and his supporting cast isn't ready for prime time. The Kansas City Royals are replicating their 2018 season, but with Whit Merrifield, Billy Hamilton and offensive renewal from Alex Gordon they are least losing competitively.
While no one expected the Twins to be leading the AL Central by 10.5 games at the end of May, I think nearly everyone expected the Houston Astros to be leading the AL West by 8.5 games over the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers at the beginning of June. What makes this all the more remarkable is that Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are currently on the IL. It remains to be seen how long they can sustain it and if the A's, Rangers and even the Los Angeles Angels (currently 10.5 games back) can make up ground in June. But most puzzling of all has been the Seattle Mariners. They began the season 13-2 and by the end of April, the Mariners were only a 1/2 game back of Houston. They are now 14 games back and in last place. Not only did the Mariners go 7-21 in May, but are 12-23 since April 11th. This might be a rebuilding year after all and Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce may soon find themselves in other uniforms.
The New York Yankees are still missing Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius while Miguel Andujar is done for the season. But Gio Urshela has filled in for Andujar admirably while D.J. LeMahieu is showing the Bronx why he is an everyday player. The Bronx Bombers ended April 1.5 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays, but after a 20-7 May they are now 1.5 games ahead of the Rays. Tampa currently has a hold on the first AL Wild Card berth and with Austin Meadows emerging as an early AL MVP candidate it is unlikely they will let that go unless it is to regain top spot in the AL East.
The Boston Red Sox were much better in May going 16-11 following a 13-17 March & April. Since April 17th, the Bosox have gone 23-15. But they are 8.5 games back of the Yankees and with ace Chris Sale 1-7 they are unlikely to close that gap no matter how many 10 plus strikeout games he has under his belt. The Toronto Blue Jays end May having lost four in a row, 8 of their last 10 with a 7-21 showing in May. But with second generation rookies Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Cavan Biggio putting on a show and with the Raptors in the NBA Finals, losing is tolerable. All the Baltimore Orioles can hope for is to lose less than 115 games this season.
The most competitive division in MLB is the NL Central with the Chicago Cubs leading the Milwaukee Brewers by a half game. Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are playing .500 ball and are only 3.5 games off the pace (although the Cardinals stumbled with a 9-16 mark in May). Even the last place Cincinnati Reds are only five games back of the Cubs. Their team ERA of 3.71 is the second best in the NL.
The only team in the NL with a better team ERA is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Vying for their seventh consecutive NL West title, the Dodgers have a 8.5 game lead over the San Diego Padres. Much of the credit for their league leading 3.56 ERA can be laid at the arm of South Korean southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu who enters June with a 1.48 ERA along with an 8-1 record. Cody Bellinger is leading the NL in hitting with a .379 batting average and is tied for the lead in RBI with Josh Bell of the Pittsburgh Pirates both of whom have 52. His 20 home runs are second only to reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich who has 21.
So the question is who will finish in second in the NL West. In that department, the Padres only have a half game lead over the Colorado Rockies who after a mediocre 13-17 March and April finished May with six straight wins and victories in 8 of their last 10 games. Much of the Rockies' recent success has come at the expense of the Arizona Diamondbacks who have lost five in a row and 7 of their last 10 games to fall under .500 at 28-30. The Bruce Bochy Farewell Tour isn't faring so well with the Giants having lost 8 of their last 10 games and struggling to score runs.
What was touted as a four team race in the NL East is currently a two team tango with the Philadelphia Phillies leading the defending divisional champion Atlanta Braves by three games. Both the New York Mets and Washington Nationals are at a crossroads. Less than two weeks ago, the Mets were on the verge of firing manager Mickey Callaway. The Mets finished May winning 8 of their last 12 games. Despite being only five games back of the Phillies, speculation abounds about who will replace Callaway.
The Nats are in far worse shape despite a starting rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin they are 9 games back of the Phillies. Their bullpen is atrocious and trade rumors have begun to abound for the likes of Anthony Rendon. The Nats haven't been the same since they fired Dusty Baker at the end of the 2017 season. For awhile there it looked like the Nats would trade places with the last place Miami Marlins. They didn't, but the Marlins 11-15 record in May was more impressive than the 12-17 posted in D.C.
So how will things stand at the end of June? Will the Twins still have a double digit lead in the AL Central? Can the Astros survive without Altuve, Springer and Correa? Can the Red Sox compete with the Yankees and Rays? Will the Mets fire Callaway? Could the Reds move from worst to first in the NL Central? Can anyone stop the Dodgers? See you on Canada Day.
No comments:
Post a Comment